Round after round, Arctic air is poised to invade the central and eastern United States. AccuWeather meteorologists warn that any outbreak of Arctic air has the potential to bring colder air farther south than the previous round, and that this will lead to a significant increase in energy demand and the risk of freeze damage in southern states.

The magnitude and extent of Arctic air will intensify during the first full week of January and continue through the middle of the month, at times affecting more than 250 million people living in more than 40 states in the central and eastern regions.

Even if any single cold layer cannot reach the most extreme conditions seen in the last 10 to 15 years, the number of days below the historical average will add up in dozens of states, from east of the Rocky Mountains to the Atlantic Gulf Coasts.

“This could be the coldest January for the U.S. overall since 2011,” said Paul Pastelok, senior long-range expert at AccuWeather.

“The combination of persistently neutral sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, warm waters in the North Pacific and an atmospheric logjam will trigger multiple rounds of Arctic air east of the Rocky Mountains,” added AccuWeather long-range meteorologist Alex Duffus. “The pattern creates a sustained failure of the jet stream southward across eastern North America to allow cold air from the Arctic to escape into the central and eastern United States.”

Another important factor in how far the extreme cold may reach south and east is the forecast that multiple storms will produce extensive areas of snow and ice from the Great Plains to the Midwest, East and even well into the southern states . The snowpack minimizes warming of the ground and acts as a tundra-like surface for the cold air to expand.

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“Right now it looks like there will be at least three large blasts of Arctic air hitting the southern states,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva. “The first outbreak will take place on January 3rd to 4th, the second on January 7th to 8th and the third round on January 11th to 12th.” Further rounds of arctic air could follow, but these are more likely to occur in the middle West and northeast will be oriented.

In the southern United States, exposed or poorly insulated homes and buildings are at high risk of pipes freezing and bursting, which can lead to major water damage. The persistence and extent of the cold can make it difficult for heat pump systems to keep up. As energy demand increases, the strain on the power grid could lead to repeated power outages.

Due to the extent and duration of freezing temperatures, cold-sensitive plants in the Gulf Coast states are at risk of damage.

“At this point, the areas likely to be most vulnerable to crop-damaging freezes will be in central and northern Florida, southern Louisiana and parts of central Texas,” DaSilva said. “We are closely monitoring South Texas and South Florida for evidence of lower temperatures that could harm agriculture.”

Much of the Great Lakes has little ice cover, so the exposed water warms the Arctic air somewhat. However, the ice cover will increase significantly if the cold air persists. As ice cover increases, the warming effects of the Great Lakes are reduced, increasing the Northeast’s exposure to extreme cold.

As the freezing air flows over the Great Lakes, it quickly picks up moisture and creates heavy to extreme snow bands that resemble lakes and could bury some cities under sheets of snow and massive drifts. Because the snow bands move with changing winds, the snow may move away and then return several times in some areas during the approximately two-week period leading up to the middle of the month.

The cold gusts are accompanied by periods of strong wind. In some cases, the combination of cold air, wind and precipitation is causing AccuWeather RealFeel® temperatures to fall well below zero for extended periods of time from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and the central valleys of Mississippi and Ohio.

Over time, RealFeel temperatures will extend below freezing east of the Appalachians and into the Gulf Coast region.

The undulating nature of the Arctic air will favor several winter storms that will dump large areas of accumulated snow and ice by the middle of the month.

The storms vary in intensity and magnitude, but at least some of them can be large and severe enough to cause significant travel disruption. Parts of the southern states will experience snow and ice, and with limited winter storm-fighting equipment, there may be prolonged hazardous travel and school closures.

But even in the Midwest and Northeast, there will be more travel disruptions and the threat of school closures as the cold and snow increases.

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