2024 has been a season full of failed expectations for the UCF Knights, and no one knows that better than their head coach Gus Malzahn.

Last Saturday’s loss at West Virginia left UCF with a non-bowl season for the first time since 2015, and that disappointment has trickled down to the fan base after a season full of high hopes.

UCF’s plans for the offseason came under intense public spotlight when Malzahn was asked about a report from CBS Sports that suggested he could be in trouble depending on how the month of November goes.

This was his answer:

“I don’t know where that comes from. I’m not retiring.”

Seems pretty definitive.

But this is college football. Sometimes it’s strange. Since Malzahn’s arrival, UCF’s winning percentage has fallen every year, from 9-4 in 2022 to 9-5 in 2023, 6-7 last season and now no better than 5-7 this season. Even with the transition to the Big 12 happening right in the middle, no one — not even Gus — will tell you it’s ideal.

Ahead of Friday’s game against Utah, there are a lot of questions floating around the internet that UCF will need to answer in the next week or so.

Here’s what we know for sure so far.

What is Malzahn’s contract?

Malzahn is under contract until the 2027 season. According to the contract he signed in the summer of 2023, he will receive $5 million in 2025 and $5.5 million per year in 2026 and 2027, as well as various incentives. The university itself pays $600,000 per year, with the rest paid by the UCFAA through donations, tickets, media, student athletic fees, etc.

What is the buyout?

According to the Daytona Beach News-Journal, it was $13.75 million at the time of publishing this post. On December 1, that amount drops to $12 million. That’s still a lot of money.

The severance payment is 75% of his remaining salary, bringing it back down to $8.25 million after next season.

Could Malzahn retire?

Malzahn is 59 years old and still has a lot to do. Ask anyone around him and they will tell you that they are a competitor through and through and would dare not to go out on a bad note.

He has also been a coach his entire professional life. After leaving Auburn in 2021, he was supposed to go into television, but then UCF made him an offer he couldn’t refuse.

Contractually speaking, a resignation would also mean that Malzahn leaves his entire takeover on the table.

Be honest: would you do that?

Could Malzahn be fired?

It would be REALLY expensive and UCF’s balance sheet is still pretty tight.

The program is in its final year of receiving half-share from the Big 12, amounting to about $19 million in expected media and bowl revenue to be paid out in the summer of 2025.

UCF will receive a full share between 2025 and 2026, reportedly around $40 million.

Now it’s possible that a donor or group of donors will give up the money, and it could all be contentious. But given what UCF would do Also I have to pay to get a new trainer out somewhere. And Pay them a Big 12 competitive salary, that’s a lot of money for any institution.

What happens next?

Friday night, UCF will face a Utah team coached by Kyle Whittingham, another experienced but struggling head coach.

Right now, it seems very likely that Malzahn will become UCF’s head coach in 2025, but there could be massive changes to his staff. Any moves would likely come shortly after the final whistle on Friday.

Once you get through all that, the challenge remains of putting together a 2025 roster after the departure of about 33 seniors and fifth-year players — a large percentage of whom were starters on both sides of the ball. And that doesn’t take into account how many more underclassmen might leave.

So Malzahn will go into the offseason with a pretty bare-bones team behind him and will have to replenish this team quickly. The early signing period runs from December 4th to 6th and the transfer portal then opens from December 9th to 28th.

Bottom line: There will be a lot to talk about at the Thanksgiving table in UCF country.