The College Football Playoff Committee, always right and never in doubt, released the latest CFP rankings on Tuesday evening:

And this is what the CFP mount would look like today…

Tennessee: It’s that simple. Win and you’re in. Go Big Orange. Beat Vandy.

Obviously the intra-conference first round matchups won’t be happening here, but goodness, if there isn’t a more glaring reason why 8 teams was the perfect format for this. In any case, Tennessee is currently facing a game between the hedgerows of Athens, a place where they were outclassed by Georgia just a few weeks ago. Suffice it to say, there isn’t the best matchup here. The most interesting situation here for me is the first four teams to be eliminated.

Despite earning one win against a team over .500 with a 31-point loss to Georgia and a two-possession home loss to Louisville, Clemson is the first team to be eliminated. The most intriguing thing about this is that if they beat South Carolina at home, their best chance at a playoff spot is not playing for their conference championship. That’s right, there is a team vying for a playoff spot. Should it actually play its conference championship game and lose, it would be eliminated from playoff contention, while a no-show would likely make it eligible for an at-large bid. The very concept of it is inherently backwards.

The following teams are the three-loss teams in the SEC, based on a sense of dominance that has taken a major hit over the last 10 days. Let’s take a look at their resumes, shall we?

ALABAMA
Quality Wins (against teams with 8+ wins): 41-34 W vs. UGA // 34-0 W @ Mizzou
Bad losses (against teams with 5+ losses): 40-35 L @ Vandy // 24-3 L @ Oklahoma
Other losses: 24-17 L @ Tennessee (9-2)

OLD MISS
Quality wins: 27-3 W @ SCAR // 28-10 W vs. UGA
Bad losses: 20-17 L vs. Kentucky // 24-17 L @ Florida
Other losses: 29-26 L @ LSU (7-4)

SOUTH CAROLINA
Quality wins: 44-20 W vs. TAMU // 34-30 W vs. Mizzou
Bad Losses: None
Other losses: 36-33 L vs. LSU // 27-3 L vs. Ole Miss // 27-25 L @ Alabama

It’s intriguing that these are the three teams potentially vying for the final spot in the CFP. Alabama and Ole Miss have a combined four losses to teams with at least five losses. The entire CFP-12 team field currently includes a total of three. On top of that, South Carolina suffered two losses: a blowout loss to Ole Miss and a narrow loss to Alabama. In the best case scenario, the last week goes to shit. Georgia barely did its part in the Clean Old Fashioned Eight overtime, so all SMU and Tennessee need to do above all is win and end this mess created by the bald heads of the college football media with unnecessary hypothetical matchups and inane talk about “Talent -Composite” fuels the narrative that each of these three teams belong, despite their terrible resumes. Recruiting builds a squad, but doesn’t win football games.

All in all, it is now much clearer how things will develop from here. So let’s break down the conference championship scenarios heading into the final week of the season and how that could impact seeding:

ACC

– Miami wins @ Syracuse and faces SMU in the ACC Championship Game.
↳ The Miami/SMU winner will likely secure third place.
— Clemson needs a Miami loss to Syracuse to reach the ACC Championship Game.
↳ Clemson’s win in the ACCCG likely leads to 4th place. A loss would likely eliminate Clemson altogether.

BIG TEN

– Ohio State beats Michigan and faces Oregon in the Big Ten championship.
– Penn State beats Maryland, Ohio State loses to Michigan. Penn State will face Oregon in the Big Ten Championship.
– Indiana beats Purdue, Ohio State and Penn State lose. Indiana will face Oregon in the Big Ten Championship.
↳ When it comes to Oregon vs. OSU in the Big Ten Championship, the winner takes first place and the loser takes fifth place.
↳ If it’s a matchup between Oregon and Penn State: Oregon’s win translates to 1-seed, loss likely results in 5-seed. A Penn State win means a 2-seed, a loss results in a 7-seed as OSU would be seeded higher based on head-to-head results.
↳ If it’s a matchup between Oregon and Indiana: Oregon’s win translates to 1-seed, loss likely results in 5-seed. Indiana win equals 2-seed.

– Texas wins at Texas A&M and faces Georgia in the SEC Championship.
↳ Texas wins rematch of lone loss against UGA to secure 2nd place.

GREAT XII

Here we go…they exist nine Teams with a chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game.

Four-way draw scenario
– Colorado, BYU, Arizona State, Iowa State all win: 4-way tie. That would mean Arizona State vs. Iowa State for the Big XII Championship and, in all likelihood, the only spot for a Big XII team in the CFP.

Three-way draw scenarios
— BYU loses to Houston:
↳ *IF* West Virginia def. Texas Tech: Arizona State vs. Iowa State
↳ *IF* Texas Tech def. West Virginia, then Baylor defeated. Kansas & Cincinnati defeated. TCU: Colorado vs. Iowa State
↳ *IF* Texas Tech def. WVU, but Baylor and/or Cincinnati lose: Colorado vs. Arizona State
– Arizona State loses to Arizona:
↳ Iowa State vs. BYU
— Iowa State loses to Kansas State:
↳ Arizona State vs. BYU

Two-way draw scenarios
– Whichever two teams tie will play for the Big XII Championship

SEC

Georgia is back in the SEC Championship Game. Within the SEC, there are only two scenarios that can occur, and one of them will be decided in the Texas vs. Texas A&M game. If Texas wins, they’re in. If A&M can pull off the upset at home, it will be the Aggies traveling to Atlanta.

– Georgia vs. Texas:
↳ Georgia win: UGA secures second place behind Oregon/OSU Big Ten champion. Texas enters as number 6.
↳ Texas win: Texas secures second place behind Oregon/OSU Big Ten Champion. Georgia may be the last at large.
– Georgia vs. Texas A&M:
↳ Texas A&M’s win likely secures fourth place in the CFP. A loss completely eliminates Aggies.

Group of Five Conference Championship Tracker

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
– Tulane vs. Army

CONFERENCE USA
– Jacksonville State won and will host.
↳ Liberty wins with victory over Sam Houston.
↳ Western Kentucky wins with victory over Jacksonville State And Loss of freedom.
↳ Sam Houston wins with victory over Liberty And Western Kentucky loss.

MAC
– Miami Redhawks vs. Ohio Bobcats

MOUNTAIN WEST
– Boise State won and will host.
↳ *IF* UNLV def. Nevada, it will be UNLV @ Boise State, possibly a CFP berth planned.
↳ *IF* UNLV loses, it will be Colorado State @ Boise State.

SUN BELT
– Louisiana moved on from South Alabama’s loss to Texas State yesterday and will host Monroe with a win over UL.
— *IF* Marshall def. James Madison (JMU is preferred) OR Georgia Southern loses at home to Appalachian State, it’s Marshall vs. Louisiana.
↳ *IF* Georgia Southern wins and Marshall loses, it’s GA Southern vs. Louisiana.

Join us later next week when we predict all the bowl games after Rivalry Week. Go Vols, beat Vandy!