NORFOLK, Va. – After our first taste of winter this week, there has been a lot of excitement about another possible chance for snow this weekend. And that excitement is justified, with long-range models pointing to another southern storm with the potential to bring some snow to the Virginia and North Carolina coasts again.

The 13News Now weather team explains the weather alert days for Friday night and Saturday for the chance of winter weather this weekend.

So far, the models don’t quite agree on what exactly will happen from Friday to Saturday. It’s about miles and distances, with the track of the storm determining the type of precipitation we see.

Here’s the situation: A low pressure area is forecast to develop along the Gulf Coast. This low will move along the Gulf Coast Friday into Friday night before finally leaving our shores on Saturday. Typically, this type of system favors winter weather over our region.

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Models continue to disagree on the placement of the low pressure system as it tracks our direction, although they are starting to agree a little. The American model tracks the low a little further north, which would give us a wintry mix that then turns into cold rain. The European model keeps the center of the system further south, which would result in a higher chance of seeing mostly snow. Given the cold air ahead of the system, it makes sense to favor the European model, although the exact forecast details have yet to come into focus. As this system moves through Texas and Tennessee, impacts there should give us a better idea of ​​what to expect here.

Typically, the European model performs better in storms such as hurricanes and nor’easters and has a good chance of at least an inch of snow. The finer details of the storm’s exact track and the amount of warm air that may attempt to enter the area need to come into clearer focus.

Here are the preliminary snowfall totals from both global models. The GFS expects the peninsulas to see the highest amounts of snowfall at around 1 to 3 inches. The European model disagrees, predicting a narrow band of 1 to 3 inches of snow will move through northeastern North Carolina to the south side.

However, this winter the GRAF model was spot on with the possible winter weather in our region. The full view of this model will be available on Wednesday evening.