If you want a high score shootout then this is for you could Be your game.

Why only “could”? Because despite these teams’ well-deserved reputations for offensive prowess, defense will likely prevail. The Ducks and Tide have shown some tenacity at times this season, and nowhere was that more evident than in “Bama’s win over No. 4 Houston and the Ducks’ stunning performance against the physical San Diego State Aztecs.”

Let’s take a look.

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Tale of the Tape: Oregon (7-0) vs. No. 9 Alabama (6-1)

Spread (Total): Alabama -6 (O/U 165.5)

Opponent KenPom: 23 (21 Attack, 35 Defense, 172 Speed)
Opponent Evan Miya: 22 (16 Attacks, 38 Defenses, 188 Speed)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 33 (33 Attack, 51 Defense, 181 Speed)
Opponent NET: Q1
Opponent’s best win: Texas A&M (No. 27)
Opponent’s worst loss: N/A

Alabama KenPom: 9 (3 Attacks, 46 Defenses, 4 Speed)
Alabama Evan Miya: 7 (3 Attacks, 30 Defenses, 2 Speed)
Alabama Bart Torvik: 8 (3 Attacks, 30 Defenses, 5 Speed)
NET ranking: N/A
Best win: No. 4 Houston
Worst loss: No. 15 Purdue, as if that was “bad.”

The Tide’s defense-optional 95-90 shootout against Rutgers was perhaps predictable. Alabama came into this thing with some really dead legs, emotionally drained and coming off a sixth straight game against a tournament team. Add to that some exceptional individual performances from the Scarlet Knights’ dynamic freshman guards and Bama’s usual battles against talented backcourt players Voila.

Your reward for all this? The surprisingly undefeated Oregon Ducks, who advanced to the $1 million final after two physical ten-point victories over the A&M Aggies and the San Diego State Aztecs. The Ducks’ offense is grabbing the headlines, but their better-than-expected defense has paved the way.

What do we know about Oregon? On paper, they are pretty much the most stereotypical basketball program you will ever see. Quite tall, but not towering (around 1.80 m on average). Shoot a lot of threes on average, but the offense doesn’t rely on them (only 34% of their offense comes from the perimeter). Reach the line more often than average, but their offense doesn’t rely on freebies (although they do). supported by 21 attempts per game).

So what Do are they okay?

First, this is an experienced team with a lot of recurring chemistry. In the age of one-off rosters, this usually helps. Secondly, they are solid all around, the ultimate all-rounder team – and without many fouls. People who think the middle jumper is dead or that move sets that allow 12-foot looks are a fine art have never seen the Ducks play. And they don’t just take it, they make the most of it by hitting 50% from the floor. Is that great? No. Alabama’s 62% (12th nationally) is great.

But the Ducks are fundamentally solid and above average at almost everything. They’re very reminiscent of the Notre Dame team the Tide faced in their first-round tournament exit a few years ago. In fact, if you wanted to put together a generic 10- or 11-player major conference NCAA tournament team, you could do worse than using the Ducks as your platonic role model. I bet their last record looks like that too. Approximately between 10 p.m. and 10 a.m.

The Ducks are not a great perimeter shooting team. They are an inside-out squad that starts with 7-foot-1 Nate Bittle. He is by far the best shooting big the Tide has faced all season. He’s 73% inside the lane, shooting another 50% from outside the arc and isn’t afraid to shoot from deep. Even though he has a 3-for-18 gross from this distance, it keeps defenders honest. He leads the teams in scoring (14 PG), blocks (2+) and rebounds (9.5) and is the key component the Tide must defend tonight. The offense goes through him. To make matters worse, he is the Ducks’ second-best free throw shooter at 86%. In fact, there are a trio of men in Oregon who flirt with 90%, so it’s not a group you want to send to the line en masse. The rest of the post guys are just warm bodies and they add about 9 PPG / 8 RPG.

On the outside, the Ducks start with PG Jackson Shelstad. He’s not a great shooter (just over 20% and not much better from the field at 34%), but he sees the court well and is great in two-man games with Bittle. He leads the way with 4 APG and is also an active defender and a very capable rebounder. TJ Bamba is their second leading scorer, and he’s more of a combo than a true SG; He also has a great feel for open looks and is also second in assists.

Other than Bittle, the next best player is probably winger Brandon Angel – he has a 44% shooting percentage from three, is third on the team in scoring, second in rebounds and blocks, and is a damn good FT shooter (almost 90%). Jadrian Tracy is the third guard in the starting lineup and also the most moody: some nights he might play ten, the next night he’s out.

It’s not a deep bench at all, but the one guy to keep an eye on is sixth man Keeshawn Barthelemy. Maybe he’ll win a starting spot at some point because when he’s on the floor, good things happen. He’s the best defender on defense, putting up two assists and nearly 10 rebounds a night, and has reached double figures in every game he’s played outside of Texas A&M. Keeshawn is also the second-best perimeter shooter (43%), and he does all of this in just a few minutes (under 22 per night). Aside from stopping Bittle and defending Bamba and Angel, I would bet that preventing Barthelemy from coming off the bench will be a big defensive task.

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Conclusion

The Ducks want to feed the post, and coupled with an average pace scheme that doesn’t get messed up, that could be the case Finally It will be the night that Cliff’s abilities are put to full use. Little Mo also has the potential to step in here and see some more minutes for Sherrell. Perhaps just as important for the Tide, OU is an active defensive team, but there are few overwhelming defenders and the Ducks will Take a good look at the basket outside the post. Not a Houston-like situation, but there’s a familiar story playing out here for Bama: Force the pace of the game and then take your shots.

Alabama also needs to be solid defensively and rely on positioning rather than aggressive hacking. The Ducks aren’t a great free throw team, but they do have some great individual shooters who work their way to the line. Because of the high number of free throws, Rutgers stayed in the game on Thursday. We’ve seen this in other games too (Illinois for example).

Likewise, the Tide needs to focus on finding their open man and then getting them to the net. The Ducks rarely commit fouls, even though they are aggressive in man defense. Alabama can’t just hope to get to the finish line like they normally do, and especially not with an all-around rim protector like Bittle. However, if the Tide can get the Ducks into foul trouble, Oregon is in trouble. This is a very thin bench.

Here’s how to watch

It’s late again: 8:00 a.m. local time on TBS. By then we should also know what happens to ‘Bama after the Arn Bow, and for those who divide their interests today, much more about the national picture will be available.

forecast

Overall, this is a very favorable matchup for Alabama. The Tide’s size and body composition is low this year to reduce the threat posed by Bittle. It’s a team that shoots better, has a deeper bench and rebounds better on offense than the Ducks do on defense. And it’s just more talented.

Vegas considers this a higher scoring game because the defense is just about decently efficient and there are two offensive teams that are well above average. But aside from a can of soup against Directional UC, the Ducks don’t live up to that high score. They play pretty slow and flirt with guys in the upper 70s, maybe 80s most nights. If ‘Bama wants to play defense, they can. And for the first time this season, the opponent’s heart isn’t a bevy of fearsome guards , which you can destroy with a series of perimeter daggers. Cliff could definitely get a foul. But Alabama has post presence and enough depth to both play a half-court game and force its style of play.

That should be enough for a million dollars… and let’s hope the people in charge decide to blow a few whistles for a change.

84-76 is our call.

Hope for the best.
Roll Tide.