Then there were four in 2024-25 College Football Playoffs. The 12-team CFP semifinals begin Thursday at 7:30 p.m. ET with the 7th seed Notre Dame fights against Irish Meet the 6 seed Penn State Nittany Lions at the Orange Bowl. Notre Dame is around -1.5 on the entire market with a moneyline of -120, and the overall value is 44.5.

Penn State punched its ticket to the CFP semifinals by defeating the SMU Mustangs 38-10 in the first round and the Boise State Broncos 31-14 in the quarterfinals. The Fighting Irish defeated the Indiana Hoosiers 27-17 in the first round and the Georgia Bulldogs 23-10 in the quarterfinals en route to the Orange Bowl.

As I wrote for my Sugar Bowl betting preview, Georgia had no chance without QB Carson Beck. It was Georgia’s second-worst team in the Kirby Smart era, ahead of only Smart’s first season in Athens. So I don’t put much stock in Notre Dame’s 23-10 win over the Bulldogs in the CFP quarterfinals.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish will face the Penn State Nittany Lions in the Orange Bowl on Thursday in the 2024-25 College Football Playoff. (Image credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images)

The Fighting Irish had fewer first downs (16-14) and yards per play (4.9-4.0) than the Bulldogs. One from Notre Dame was 13 yards long after Georgia fumbled the ball on its side of the field. Another reason was a 98-yard kick return touchdown for the Fighting Irish early in the second half.

Georgia was 0-3 on fourth down and lost the turnover battle 2-0. So the Sugar Bowl was more about the Bulldogs losing than the Fighting Irish winning. Admittedly, Penn State definitely “played with its food” compared to Boise State. However, the Nittany Lions did what they set out to do: they shut down Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty.

Penn State held Jeanty, the 2024 Heisman Trophy runner-up, to 104 rushing yards on 30 carries with no touchdowns. All Notre Dame did to beat Georgia was not make mistakes. Fighting Irish QB Riley Leonard had 90 passing yards against the Bulldogs. That just won’t be enough against Penn State on Thursday.

Boise State Broncos RB Ashton Jeanty is tackled by the Penn State Nittany Lions during the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. (Image credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images).

Additionally, Notre Dame could be without a star RB Jeremiyah lovewho led the team with 1,076 rushing yards and 18 total touchdowns (16 rushing and two receiving). Love opened the Indiana game with a 98-yard TD run, but only had 10 touches of the ball due to illness. He injured his knee against Georgia and only had 7 touches for 21 yards.

Ultimately, I’m betting on the Nittany Lions because they can pass and run. Both teams can take away the run, but Penn State QB Drew Allar is the much better passer. Additionally, the Fighting Irish have no game-changing pass catchers while the Nittany Lions have TE Tyler Warren will be the first tight end taken in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Prediction: Penn State 23, Notre Dame 17

• This is my favorite bet of the two CFP semifinals. For what it’s worth, I’ll take this The Nittany Lions’ +100 money lineavailable from several sports betting providers.

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