The Boston Celtics finished their four-game series in style with a 10-point lead over the Denver Nuggets and now return home to host the red-hot Sacramento Kings.

The Kings have won five straight but are without De’Aaron Fox, meaning they will be in double figures against the reigning champs.

Will Sacramento be able to hold onto this game without its star point guard around? Hard to say, but my Kings vs. Celtics predictions and NBA picks are opting for a player prop instead, as this game begins on Friday, January 10 at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Kings vs Celtics Prediction

My best choice
Payton Pritchard 4+ threes (+235 at bet365)

My analysis

The Boston Celtics already look like they’re just sitting around waiting for the playoffs. Boston enters this matchup with a record of 27-10, third in the net standings and the +220 favorite (bet365) to defend their NBA title.

Does this mean the Celtics are playing with their food a little? Secure. With an ATS of 15-21-1, they haven’t been a good bet against the number this season and are 10-11 with a double-digit ATS this season.

I’m not sure that will be an issue tonight against the Sacramento Kings. The Kings are on a roll, winning five straight and are 4-1 ATS, but not having De’Aaron Fox in this matchup is a big deal.

Fox is the catalyst for these Kings’ offense, averaging 26.7 points, 6.2 assists and 4.9 rebounds per game. So replacing that production will make it even more difficult to keep up with the Celtics, who rank second in the NBA in offensive rating.

And while the Kings have improved defensively this season, defending the perimeter is still a problem. Sacramento ranks 21st in opponent 3-point attempts per game and 27th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.

The Celtics have a lot of shooters. Jayson Tatum, Derrick White. But I want to focus on Sixth Man of the Year (-220 at bet365) favorite Payton Pritchard.

Pritchard has always been a dead-eye shooter, but this season he takes it to the next level. The 26-year-old is averaging 14.8 points per game, the highest of his career, primarily from the 3-ball. Pritchard is making 8.3 three-pointers per game and missing an incredible 42% of those attempts. But when you break down his per-36 numbers, his 10.7 threes per 36 lead the Celtics, ahead of Tatum’s 10.4.

There’s little to say that the former Oregon Duck lets fly, and I think he’ll do just that tonight against the Kings. This matchup is a potential cracker that could mean more minutes for Pritchard as a substitute. And even though he’s been in a bit of a slump in his last two games, he’s still shot four or more three-pointers in 10 of his last 17 games overall.

Pritchad’s made threes over/under are set at 2.5, but give me his alt line of 4+ at +235 instead.

Same game between Kings and Celtics

Payton Pritchard 4+ threes

Kristaps Porzingis Over 18.5 points

Domantas Sabonis Over 6.5 assists

Pritchard isn’t the only Celtic I like to spend a nice evening shooting basketball with. Kristaps Porzingis is healthy again and seems to be getting better with every passing game. He is averaging 18.3 points per game this season and went 9 of 18 from the floor for 25 points against the Nuggets.

Stretch fours can sometimes be a problem for Kings center Domantas Sabonis, and if Porzingis can land a few threes tonight he should surpass his point total of 18.5. He did that in nine of his 14 games this season.

What is the trickle-down effect of De’Aaron Fox being out for the Kings? First of all, the Sacramento offense will largely run through Sabonis. The Kings big man has always been a playmaker and is averaging 6.3 assists per game this season.

Not only has that number increased to 7.5 in his last six games, but he has also spent more than seven cents five times in that span. Additionally, the Celtics will likely try to get the ball out of Sabonis’ hands and force the Kings to beat them somewhere else.

This +1000 Same Game Parlay can be increased by 30% tonight at bet365.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Kings vs Celtics odds

Kings vs Celtics live odds

Kings vs. Celtics opening odds

• Spread: Sacramento +10.5 | Boston -10.5
• Money line: Sacramento +375 | Boston -500
• Over/Under: About 228.5 | Below 228.5

Odds courtesy of bet365

Kings vs. Celtics distribution and over/under analysis

• The Celtics opened this game as 10.5-point home favorites, indicating that the oddsmakers expected De’Aaron Fox not to play this game. Even as the Fox news was confirmed, the odds rose as high as 12.5 at some sportsbooks.
• Both the Kings and Celtics have been underperformers this season, with Sacramento going 14-22-1 ATS and Boston going 15-21-1 ATS.
• The total was 228.5 and was slightly lowered to 226.5 on Friday afternoon.
• This is also due to the news of Fox’s injury and I would lean towards early money. If this game ends, it will be because the Celtics are doing most of the work themselves. It’s hard to imagine the Kings doing their part against this Celtics’ defense without Fox.

Kings vs Celtics trend

The Kings have only reached the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 59 games dating back to last season, which translates to -17.60 units and an ROI of -27%. Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs. Celtics.

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