The surging Duke Blue Devils look to pick up their 10th straight win and stay perfect in ACC play when they host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish this afternoon. Tipoff is scheduled for noon ET from Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, NC.

Notre Dame has lost three straight games and is listed as a distant 19.5-point underdog in the college basketball odds.

While the fourth-place Blue Devils are clearly the better team in this matchup, my Notre Dame vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks suggest the visitors could be the better game, especially with all these points .

Notre Dame vs. Duke prediction

My best choice
Notre Dame +19.5 (-110 at bet365)

My analysis

The Duke Blue Devils went a perfect 5-0 in ACC play with a 76-47 win over Pittsburgh in their last outing. They have won by double digits five straight times in the conference, and an eight-point victory over then-second-ranked Auburn is the only game decided by under 10 points during that run.

While the Blue Devils’ offense gets a lot of attention (and rightly so), it is the Duke defense that is the backbone of this success and is currently the top-ranked defense on KenPom.

They allow just 58.4 points per game, are tops in the ACC, and teams are shooting just 35.8% from the field – one of only five schools in the country that holds their teams to under 36% shooting.

That stifling defense is helped by the offense averaging 80 points per game and finding its range from distance, as the Blue Devils have hit 10 or more three-pointers in four straight games.

We’ll see how they respond to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish playing exclusively in the zone, and it may take some time for the Blue Devils to get used to it.

But Notre Dame needs to do a lot more if they want to pull off an upset. They are coming off a 66-65 loss to NC State, one game after losing another one-point decision to North Carolina.

While ND ranks in KenPom’s top 60 in offensive efficiency, scoring 74.9 points per game, they struggle against elite defenses. Notre Dame put up just 54 points against Houston (second in defensive efficiency according to KenPom) and just 48 against Georgia (20th).

But despite a 7-8 record, it’s fair to say that the Irish are gamers. Of the eight losses this season, only one was by double digits, a 69-48 loss to Georgia.

They are 5-2-2 against the spread against power conference schools and are a perfect 4-0 ATS as a road underdog.

Duke is just 3-3-0 ATS in games where they have an advantage by 20 or more points.

While there is no chance for ND to win, the Fighting Irish are given just enough points to stay within coverage range.

Cooper Flagg pick: The shots keep falling

My best choice
Cooper Flagg over 18.5 points (-130 at bet365)

My analysis

Cooper Flagg’s amazing talents and all the hype have met at the peak. Since the disappointing 13-point loss to Kansas, Flagg has been playing some really good basketball.

In the win over Pitt, he scored 19 points on 7 of 11 shooting after scoring at least 24 points in three of the previous four. In fact, during this nine-game fun streak, Flagg has surpassed the 18.5-point mark he was given on Saturday six times.

Averaging 20.8 points in ACC play, look for him to find niches inside the Notre Dame zone as well as along the 3-point line to attack the paint.

Notre Dame vs Duke odds

Notre Dame vs Duke live odds

Notre Dame vs. Duke opening odds

• Spread: Notre Dame +20 | Duke -20
• Money line: Notre Dame +1500 | Duke -5000
• Over/Under: Over 136 | Under 136

Odds courtesy of bet365

Things to know about the “Notre Dame vs. Duke” betting trend.

The Blue Devils have won 14 straight home games against unranked opponents. Find more college basketball betting trends for Notre Dame vs. Duke.

Here’s how to watch Notre Dame vs. Duke

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