Current Super Bowl odds: 9.9%

Why they will win the Super Bowl

Since Week 11, Kyle Hamilton has played at least 19 snaps at free safety in every Ravens game and at least 25 snaps in all but two games, according to PFF. During the same period, the Ravens ranked first in both EPA per game against the pass and defensive pass success rate. That’s a huge jump from where he was before – 28th in EPA per game against the pass, 21st in defensive pass success rate – when Hamilton didn’t play nearly as much free safety.

Sure, some of their success has to do with the low quality of opponents they’ve faced, but there’s no doubt the Ravens have diagnosed a problem in their defense and righted the ship. Considering the state of their elite offense, average defense would go a long way, and it’s safe to say they’re better than average right now.

Why they don’t do it

The postseason woes continue for quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ offense. Jackson’s career touchdown per attempt percentage is 6.4%. He currently leads the NFL this season with 8.6%. In six career playoff games, that number is just 3.1%. His interception rate increases from 1.9% in the regular season to 3.1% in the playoffs. His graduation rate drops by eight percentage points. No matter how you approach it, the Ravens have failed to understand the passing offense in Jackson’s short playoff career. If this trend continues, they won’t have enough firepower to handle potential road trips to Buffalo and Kansas City.