NFL Wild Card Betting 2024 – Sunday odds, analysis, tips and trends

NFL Wild Card Betting 2024 – Sunday odds, analysis, tips and trends

This game is getting ugly. We thank Denver for an impressive season, but take a look at the numbers and you’ll see that the Broncos went 1-7, trailing teams with a winning record this season by minus-37 points, making their win in Week 18, of course, doesn’t include the Kansas City Chiefs’ backups. Denver’s wins outside of Week 18 came against clubs that had a combined record of 48-88 (.353) this season, which isn’t exactly the kind of resume you’re looking for when judging which teams have a realistic chance of being in Buffalo in January and working closely with Josh Allen and the Bills.

The Eagles (14-3, 11-6) host the Packers (11-6, 9-8 ATS) in the second wild-card game on Sunday and welcome back quarterback Jalen Hurts to the lineup. Hurts, who hasn’t played since suffering a concussion in Week 16, has cleared concussion protocol, coach Nick Sirianni said Friday, clearing him to play.

Of course, Hurts and Philadelphia (+650 to win the Super Bowl) can also lean on Saquon Barkley. Barkley missed the regular season finale despite being within striking distance of breaking the NFL’s all-time single-season rushing record.

The Eagles and Packers (20-1 to win the Super Bowl) have already played once this season, with Green Bay losing 34-29 to Philadelphia in the season opener in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

The Packers have lost their last two games of the regular season, while the Eagles have won 12 of their last 13.

Sunday afternoon kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET on FOX.

Game lines

Spread: Eagles -5 (Open Eagles -3.5)
Money line: Eagles -250, Packers +210
Over/Under: 45.5 (open 46.5)

Distribution in the first half: Eagles -3.5 (+110), Packers +3.5 (-135)
Eagles total points: 24.5 (above -120/below -110)
Packers total points: 19.5 (above -125/below -105)

Matchup Predictor (from ESPN Analytics): The Eagles have a 51.2% chance of winning

Player props

Passing by

Jalen Hurts total passing yards: 224.5 (Over +110/Under -140)
Affects the total number of TDs passed: 1.5 (Over +115/Under -155)
Jordan Love total passing yards: 224.5 (above -115/below -115)
I absolutely love passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +125/Under -160)

Rush

Saquon Barkley Total Rushing Yards: 99.5 (above -130/below +100)
Josh Jacobs total rushing yards: 69.5 (above -125/below -105)
Hurt total rushing yards: 39.5 (Over +105/Under -135)

Reception

AJ Brown total receiving yards: 79.5 (above -130/below +100)
DeVonta Smith total receiving yards: 59.5 (above -120/below -110)
Jayden Reed receiving total yards: 44.5 (above -105/below -125)
Romeo Doubs total receiving yards: 44.5 (above -120/below -110)
Dontayvion Wicks total receiving yards: 39.5 (above -125/below -105)
Dallas Goedert total receiving yards: 34.5 (above -130/below +100)
Tucker Kraft total receiving yards: 34.5 (above -120/below -110)
Jacob’s total receiving yards: 24.5 (Over +105/Under -135)

Tyler Fulghum’s choice

Eagles -5 (-110)

Even if they’re not the betting favorite, the Philadelphia Eagles are, in my opinion, the NFC team most likely to reach the Super Bowl. That’s why I’m going to take them to the win and cover in their wild card round game against the Green Bay Packers, a rematch of the first game we saw this season that featured a wild shootout in Brazil, but that was a The Eagles team had a defense that was nowhere near the level they are at right now. I think their offense is the best in the NFL and everyone is healthy, and for that reason I like them to win and cover against Green Bay in the wild card round.

Betting trends and more

Courtesy of ESPN Research

  • Including the playoffs, the Packers’ Matt LaFleur is the only head coach in the Super Bowl era to have a winning record (at least two games) as an underdog. LaFleur is a 19-16 underdog.

  • LaFleur also has the best coverage percentage as an outside hitter of any coach with at least 10 games in that role, 25-10 ATS (.714). Since 2021, the Packers are 20-7 ATS as an underdog and 14-5 ATS as an underdog on the road.

  • The Eagles are 4-0 in playoff games under Nick Sirianni. Unders are 7-1 in Eagles playoff games since 2018.

  • The Eagles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games.

  • The Eagles have played three straight home games.

  • The Packers went 12-5 ATS in the first quarter, the best mark in the NFL. The Eagles are 5-12 ATS in the first quarter, third-worst in the NFL.


In the final game of Sunday’s tripleheader, the Commanders (12-5, 11-6 ATS) face the NFC South champion Buccaneers (10-7, 10-7 ATS).

Behind rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, Washington (40-1 to win the Super Bowl) enters the playoffs with a five-game winning streak. After a four-game losing streak midway through the season, Tampa Bay (25-1 to win the Super Bowl) won six of its final seven games to close out the regular season and clinch the NFC South title.

The Commanders’ last postseason appearance came in the 2020–21 season and ended in a wild card loss to a Tom Brady-led Buccaneers team that would go on to win the Super Bowl.

Washington and Tampa Bay have also met this season, with the Buccaneers winning 37:20 at home in the season opener.

Sunday night’s kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock.

Game lines

Spread: Buccaneers -3 (Open Buccaneers -2.5)
Money line: Privateers -165, Commanders +140
Over/Under: 50.5 (open 49.5)

Distribution in the first half: Buccaneers -1.5 (-120), Commanders +1.5 (Even)
Buccaneers Total Points: 26.5 (above -115/below -115)
Total Commander Points: 23.5 (above -110/below -120)

Matchup Predictor (from ESPN Analytics): Buccaneers 58.3% chance of winning

Player props

Passing by

Baker Mayfield’s total passing yards: 249.5 (above -125/below -105)
Mayfield’s total passing TDs: 1.5 (above -210/below +160)
Jayden Daniels total passing yards: 224.5 (above -140/below +110)
Daniel’s total passing TDs: 1.5 (above -140/below +105)

Rush

Bucky Irving’s total rushing yards: 89.5 (above -120/below -110)
Brian Robinson Jr. total rushing yards: 49.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Daniel’s total rushing yards: 49.5 (above -115/below -115)
Austin Ekeler’s total rushing yards: 19.5 (above -120/below -110)

Reception

Mike Evans total receiving yards: 69.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Terry McLaurin total receiving yards: 59.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Jalen McMillan total receiving yards: 49.5 (above -130/below +100)
Olamide Zaccheau’s total receiving yards: 39.5 (above -120/below -110)
Zach Ertz total receiving yards: 39.5 (above -110/below -120)
Dyami Brown receiving total yards: 24.5 (above -110/below -120)
Total Receiving Yards in Irving: 19.5 (above -130/below +100)

Tyler Fulghum’s pick:

Total score OVER 50.5 (-105)

The highest overall game of the wild card round in Tampa with Jayden Daniels and the Commanders visiting the Buccaneers. I think we see a lot of points in this duel, the number is just not high enough for me. I’ll play the over. I think we’re going to get a 50+ point shootout as Jayden Daniels takes on the Buccaneers defense while using his arms and legs to create explosives.

And what a season Baker Mayfield had along with Mike Evans and rookie Bucky Irving in the Buccaneers’ offense. I think this could be the most entertaining game of the wildcard round, and that’s why I like to bet on it going over the number.

Betting trends and more

Courtesy of ESPN Research

  • The Commanders are 0-3 ATS in their last three road games, with all three games coming in under the point total.

  • Four Buccaneers games in a row have exceeded the total. The overs are 12-5 in Buccaneers games this season, including 11 of the last 14.

  • The Commanders’ overs are 5-1 when facing teams with winning records this season. The Overs are 4-0 in the Buccaneers’ last four games against teams with winning records.

  • Over the last 10 seasons, rookie quarterbacks have gone 0-5 outright and 1-4 ATS in away playoff games.

  • Dan Quinn is 22-15 ATS as an outside hitter and 18-19 as an outside hitter in his career. The Commanders are 4-2 ATS and 3-3 outright underdogs this season, with the overs going 5-1 in those games.

  • The Buccaneers’ first-half overs are 12-4-1 this season, the third-highest over rate in the NFL. Commander’s overs in the first half are 10-5-2, the fourth highest rate.

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