The Indianapolis Colts had a chance to make the playoffs last week. It was an outside chance that required other dominoes to fall into place, but it was a chance nonetheless. Just a few days later, the Colts are actually sitting at No. 12 in the 2025 NFL Draft. It seems hard to imagine competing for a playoff spot and being so close to the top ten draft picks, but with an extended one Playoff field, more and more teams find themselves in trouble later in the season. That’s exactly what the NFL wanted, and it worked. With Colts fans now unable to recall a playoff appearance, it would be best to see them lose to the Jaguars on Sunday to better position themselves for the future.

There are scenarios that take this into account that are beyond me at the moment, but currently the Colts have the same record as the Cowboys and Cardinals. The tiebreaker scenarios make them more favorable for selection in next year’s draft. There’s a chance they could drop to 17th if teams like the Falcons, Bengals, Dolphins, Cowboys and Cardinals lose while the Colts win. Because of all the tiebreakers, it would be unlikely that they would fall that far behind, but the Colts could be much closer to getting to 17 than 12. A loss to the Jaguars would not only help them hold on to that spot, but could also increase them to 11. (Again, big disclaimer as I haven’t gone through all of these scenarios to see exactly what they are would do.)

What makes this so difficult is that the Jaguars are bad. They are ranked No. 5 overall and are not expected to win on the road against the Colts. Neither team will simply decide on a draft pick because the players are too proud and disconnected from that side of the entire franchise not to give it their best shot. We also saw that any team in the NFL can beat another team no matter how bad they are, such as the Giants.

There’s a lot at stake for both franchises heading into Sunday. However, there are players and coaches fighting for their NFL careers who don’t care if their team gets a better draft pick next year. Expecting the Colts to win this game is unrealistic. The game plan will be to win. While this might provide some short-term satisfaction for fans, it will be costly in the long run. Regardless, you can expect the Colts to beat the Jaguars and come back in the draft.