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A significant risk of storms is expected on Saturday

A significant risk of storms is expected on Saturday

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) – A strong upper air storm system is expected to bring a significant severe weather threat to the Deep South, including the WAFB viewing area, on Saturday. A weather warning day was announced in advance of the threat.

Severe weather prospects

As of Friday evening, a Level 3/5 (Enhanced) risk of severe weather is reported for Saturday along and north of the I-10/I-12 corridor. Further south, the threat is less, but our entire viewing area should be prepared for possible strong storms. The black hatching on the map indicates that the Storm Prediction Center also believes some strong tornadoes are possible.

Severe weather forecast from the Storm Prediction Center from Friday, valid from Saturday...
Severe weather forecast from the Storm Prediction Center on Friday, valid from Saturday morning through Sunday morning.(WAFB)

Early storms?

Isolated storms could begin firing as early as Saturday morning as a warm front moves inland from the Gulf of Mexico. The risk of severe weather appears to be low in the morning, but isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out.

The HRRR model run is effective at 7 a.m. Saturday and shows scattered showers and thunderstorms possible...
The HRRR model run is effective at 7 a.m. Saturday and shows that isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible early in the day.(WAFB)

Scattered storms into the afternoon

Isolated storms may occur into the afternoon and the threat of some becoming more severe will gradually increase. However, it is important to note that we are NOT expecting all-day rain.

The HRRR model run valid on Saturday at 12 p.m. shows that isolated storms continue to develop and...
HRRR model run, effective at 12 p.m. Saturday, shows isolated storms continuing to develop and moving northward across southern Louisiana and southwest Mississippi.(WAFB)

The severe storm threat will reach its peak on Saturday evening

We are confident that a line of storms will move from west to east across the area Saturday night/night. And this line will likely pose the greatest threat of severe weather.

HRRR model run, effective Saturday at 9 p.m., shows a line of strong storms potentially moving...
The HRRR model run effective Saturday at 9 p.m. shows a line of strong storms potentially moving through southern Louisiana and southwest Mississippi.(WAFB)

SEVERE WEATHER TYPES

All types of severe weather are possible, including damaging winds, hail and tornadoes, some of which may be severe. The risk of flooding appears to be limited, but is not zero.

All types of severe weather are possible on Saturday, with the greatest threat being damaging...
All types of severe weather are possible on Saturday, with the greatest threat being damaging winds.(WAFB)

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

When you wake up on Sunday, it will no longer be raining, and the final days of 2024 will see much calmer weather come to an end. New Year’s Eve celebrations should remain dry, but it will tend to be cooler and jackets will likely be needed.

The extended outlook for the Baton Rouge region shows that the weather will become significantly calmer again on Sunday. Dry...
The extended outlook for the Baton Rouge region shows that the weather will become significantly calmer again on Sunday. Dry and cool weather is expected for the New Year celebrations.(WAFB)

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