Kevin O’Connell has preached maintaining a “1-0” mentality this season. He wants the team to focus on next week without looking at other games. This week will test the team’s concentration more than any other. The Green Bay Packers are coming to town, but a showdown with the Detroit Lions for the NFC’s No. 1 seed looms in Week 18.

There should be no reason for the Vikings to believe they will beat the Packers. Green Bay is 11-4 and their four losses have come against the Lions (13-2), Vikings (13-2) and Philadelphia Eagles (12-3). The Vikings must beat the Packers to ensure their Week 18 game with the Lions will determine the NFC North.

It’s the kind of opportunity that previous Vikings teams have squandered. Since their last Super Bowl appearance in January 1977, they have made the playoffs 23 times. However, they only had home advantage once, although they had numerous opportunities to secure it throughout the regular season.

The Vikings could have secured first place in the NFC in 2000 when they started December with an 11-2 record, two games better than the New York Giants. Minnesota had to beat either the St. Louis Rams, who were on a three-game losing streak to start the month, or the Packers, who were 6-7 heading into the final month of the season.

Instead, Minnesota’s defense completely collapsed. The Vikings fell to the Rams 40-29 after allowing 508 yards to the Greatest Show On Turf. Minnesota returned home to host the Packers and lost 33-28 after allowing 400 yards. With home field advantage out of reach, the Vikings rested their starters midway through their Week 17 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. They traveled to New York to face the Giants in the NFC Championship and famously lost 41-0.

Nine years later, the Vikings acquired Brett Favre to help them to a championship run. Minnesota has been chasing the New Orleans Saints all season long. The Vikings entered Dec. 10 while the Saints were 11-0. But after a 13-0 start, the Saints eventually lost to the Dallas Cowboys on a Saturday night, opening the door for the Vikings to fall behind.

However, the following day the Vikings lost 11-2 to the Carolina Panthers 5-8. The Saints lost again the following week to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Minnesota had a date with the 5-9 Chicago Bears on Monday night. But because the game was being played at Soldier Field, the mood was sour, and Adrian Peterson’s fumble in overtime allowed the Bears to escape with a 39-yard touchdown pass.

The defeat meant the Saints secured the home win. After defeating the Cowboys 34-3 in the divisional round of the playoffs, the Vikings traveled to New Orleans and played in the loud Superdome. They lost in overtime 31-28. Would the game have been different if it had taken place in the Metrodome?

The Vikings also lost these games on a smaller scale. On Christmas Eve 2004, they faced the Packers with the NFC North on the line. Both teams were 8-6, and a loss could keep the loser out of the playoffs. The game went back and forth, but the Packers scored 10 points in 3:34 in the final to win the NFC North.

Minnesota complicated matters the following week, losing 21-18 to the 5-10 Washington Redskins. The loss dropped the Vikings to 8-8 and left their playoff hopes hanging in the balance. Minnesota’s playoff hopes were only secured after the Saints defeated the Panthers 21-18. As a result, the Vikings had to play two away games, one in Green Bay (where they won 31:17) and one in Philadelphia, where the season ended after a 27:14 defeat.

These teams all had their own problems. The 2000 team was a poor version of the historic 1998 version. But the defense was among the worst in the league and couldn’t keep up when the team needed it most. Favre and head coach Brad Childress openly argued and were caught on NBC cameras as Childress tried to remove Favre from the game against the Panthers. And in 2004, the Randy Moss era ended, with his toxicity affecting the camaraderie.

The 2024 Vikings don’t have these problems. Determining whether the offense or defense is the strength of the team can sometimes be a challenge. O’Connell seems to have a great relationship with everyone on the team. And Justin Jefferson doesn’t bring the drama on and off the field that Moss did, despite being one of the best receivers in the league.

Put it all together and the team is just good, and the Vikings have a chance to beat the Packers and set the stage for one of their biggest regular season games in our lifetime. Green Bay is good enough to beat the Vikings even if Minnesota plays a great game.

But if the Vikings want to flip the script and make the NFC playoffs go over Minnesota for the first time since 1998, they will win this game. They beat the Packers 31-29 back in September. A mature team would also handle business at home.