With most teams across the country waiting for the final few pre-conference matchups, we head to the heart of Texas to make a prediction between the Abilene Christian Wildcats and the Baylor Bears. Baylor returns home after a tough road loss to UConn (and one of the most brutal covers of the year) and has three non-conference matches to secure before Big 12 play begins. ACU is on the final leg of a nearly month-long road trip and this will be their biggest benchmark game of the year. There’s no doubt that Baylor is far and away the better team, and the 22-point gap is telling. However, Baylor has some injury concerns that concern me about this spread number, so my preferred play is a game total over 142.5.

The injury concerns are twofold. First, star freshman VJ Edgecombe had to sit out the UConn game with a lingering hamstring injury. As is always the case with college teams, we don’t really know his status or how long the Bears might have to rest him. Second, veteran point guard Jeremy Roach left the UConn game with a head injury and was placed in the protocol for a concussion. Here too, it is not yet clear what his availability will be on Monday. If both (or one) of these guys play, you can probably count on a Baylor cover here. If not, ACU may get stuck. In any case, I expect points. It’s unlikely the Wildcats can beat Baylor no matter who plays. When Baylor is at full strength, it could reach the 90-60 mark. If Baylor is limited, we may see that ACU can score enough points to keep up and still surpass the total. Although I don’t know the injury status, I think the over is the safest play.

Abilene Christian vs Baylor Prediction: Over 142.5 (-110) available at time of publication. Playable under this number.