Clemson (9-3) opened the year in dubious fashion, losing 34-3 to Georgia to begin its climb to a CFP playoff spot. However, the Tigers battled back and rattled off six straight wins before losing 33-21 (18% win expectation) at home to Louisville, further complicating their hopes of making the ACC Championship Game. Clemson rallied to win the next three games against @VT/Pitt/Citadel, but they are sorely lacking a decisive victory. The Tigers’ only win over a team with a winning record came in Week 12 against @Pitt when they suffered a close 24-20 decision. They have an impressive +14 TO advantage, run the ball extremely effectively, and are 10th in rushing success rate. Defensively, CU is quite competent on a per-down basis and is 28th in rushing success rate allowed. But they are troubled by high-octane run plays and rank 127th in yards per successful rush allowed (11.6).

Aside from an 18-15 loss in Week 3 to a 10-2 BYU team, SMU (11-1) cruised through its 60th-ranked ACC schedule and remained undefeated in conference play in its first Power Four season. A 28-27 victory over @Duke (9-3) produced the lowest win expectation of any SMU win at a strong 74%, demonstrating the compelling nature of the Mustangs’ success. Their offense ranks 5th nationally in SP+, with their potent passing attack ranking 7th nationally in both EPA/dropback and yards per successful dropback (17.7). The SMU rushing attack is clearly the weakest unit on the team, ranking 82nd in rush success rate and 115th in YAC (2.16). On the defensive side, it couldn’t be any different, as their defensive front holds opponents to 7.3 yards per successful rush (4th in FBS) and a sensational 0.7 yards before contact is allowed (8th). There is similar stinginess in SMU’s secondary, as they rank 8th in pass success rate and 14th in QBR allowed.

NBC Sports has the latest information and analysis you need, including how to tune in, BetMGM odds, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our team of experts.

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Game details and how to watch the ACC Championship: Clemson vs. SMU

· Date: Saturday, December 7, 2024
· Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
· Location: Bank of America Stadium
· City: Charlotte, NC
· TV/Streaming: ABC

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ACC Championship Game Odds: Clemson vs. SMU

The latest odds courtesy of BetMGM:

• Money line: SMU (-135), Clemson (+115)
• Spread: SMU -2.5
• Over/Under: 56.5 points

The books misjudged the market in this game, with Clemson starting as a -1.5/-120 favorite before moving to the current line of +2.5/+115. The SMU moneyline had a decent value at even money on Sunday’s decline, but has since plummeted to -135. The game total is still pretty volatile after opening at 54.5, even rising to 57 if you look for it.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC sports betting analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) says:
“When you look at each team’s resume, Clemson’s lack of a truly definitive, decisive win is particularly concerning. SMU’s only blemish was a three-point loss to 10-2 BYU when starting QB Kevin Jennings was still QB2 behind Preston Stone. They defeated Pitt 48-25 and earned victories over teams with more than 8 wins (TCU/@Louisville/@Duke). I support the SMU money line and bet on (-125/135).”

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ACC Championship quarterback matchup: Clemson vs. SMU

• SMU: At the start of fall camp, conventional wisdom saw former four-star quarterback Preston Stone assume his role as starting quarterback. However, QB Kevin Jennings performed so well that HC Rhett Lashlee committed to giving him snaps as QB1B to Stones 1A. That arrangement lasted three weeks until Jennings was forced to take over in the 18-15 loss to BYU after Stone failed in his final starting appearance. Jennings has completed 67% of his throws for 2,758 yards, a 19-to-7 ratio and 9.3 yards per attempt, which ranks fifth-best among Power Four signal-callers. He has a strong ability to escape the rush, evidenced by a pressure-to-sack rate of 11.8%, and ranks 12th in the FBS with a PFF passing grade of 85.6.

• Clemson: Third-year QB Cade Klubnik was considered the #1 quarterback recruit from the 2022 prep cycle, and after two learning seasons (63.9 PFF passing grade in 2023), Klubnik has taken a leap, completing 63.2% of his throws for 7 .5 YPA and a Sterling completed ratio of 29 to 5. He tests the opposing secondaries more generously downfield this year and increases his ADOT from 7.0 to 9.7 and achieved a sensational PFF passing score of 89.5, placing 9th in P4. Perhaps most impressively, Klubnik leads the nation with an 82.0 PFF pass pressure grade. The third-year field general has shown the ability to navigate the pocket and keep his eyes on the field when protection fails, with the primary beneficiary being WR Antonio Williams.

Clemson vs. SMU: Betting trends and current stats

• The SMU offense has thrown for 3,167 yards in 12 games this season, which ranks 31st among FBS offenses. Clemson’s defense has allowed just 206.9 yards per game this season, third-best among ACC defenses.
• SMU’s WRs have averaged 15.2 yards after the catch this season, second best among ACC WRs. Clemson’s defense has allowed just 11.0 YAC this season, fourth-best among ACC defenses.
• Kevin Jennings has completed 66.7% of passes this season, making him the fourth-best qualified ACC quarterback. Clemson’s defense has allowed a completion rate of just 54.8% this season, 10th best among FBS defenses.
• SMU has allowed a 69% completion rate in the red zone this season, which is the worst among power conference teams.
• Clemson WR Antonio Williams has thrown 10 touchdown passes this season, tied for third-most among power conference skill players. San Jose State WR Nick Nash led the nation with 16 TD receptions.
• Clemson is undefeated (6-0) when allowing fewer than 5 yards per rush this season. (Average: .654)
• Clemson allowed opponents to rush for more than 20 yards on 24 of its 394 carries this season, the worst mark among power conference teams.
• Cade Klubnik has completed 71% of passes (34 completions/48 net pass attempts) on third-and-long this season, third-best among power conference quarterbacks.

BetMGM College Football Highlights: Conference Championship Week

Most betting games (tickets)
1. Penn State-Oregon
2. Georgia-Texas
3. Iowa State-Arizona State
Most betting teams (tickets)
1. Oregon -3.5
2. Texas -2.5
3. Arizona State -2.5
Most Betting Teams (Handle)
1. Oregon -3.5
2. Texas -2.5
3. Arizona State -2.5
Most Bet Overruns (Tickets)
1. Georgia-Texas 49.5
2. Western Kentucky-Jacksonville State 57.5
3. Clemson-SMU 56.5
Most betting unders (tickets)
1st Tulane Army 46.5
2. Marshall-Lafayette 56.5
3. Ohio-Miami OH 44.5
Most people bet that underdogs will win (tickets)
1. Georgia +120
2. Iowa State +110
3. Clemson +115

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