Left-handed Max Fried is one of the best free agents remaining, but could soon be off the board. According to a report from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, Fried is expected to select his next club by Thursday, with the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays considered the front-runners. Rosenthal adds this right-hander Corbin Burnes draws interest from the same three clubs, with the Giants perhaps involved there as well, but not for Fried. The Rangers are mentioned as a possible option for Fried, but that is presented as more of a long-shot option as the Angels are listed alongside the Giants as prospects who are not finalists for Fried.

It may not be a coincidence that the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays were finalists Juan Soto Frenzy and are now listed as the most likely landing spots for Fried. The general expectation throughout the baseball world was that clubs with money would focus on Soto until there was clarity on the situation, and that those who missed out would then move on to other targets. Now that Soto is going to the Mets, things actually seem to be working out that way.

All three clubs want to make it big, albeit for different reasons. The Yankees just made it to the World Series, but suffered a disappointing five-game loss to the Dodgers in which they appeared clearly outmatched. They then lost the great success of last year when Soto moved from the Bronx to Queens. The Red Sox have cut salaries in recent years with lackluster results, but now appear to be motivated to challenge big again. The Jays were good in the regular season from 2020 to 2023, but suffered a heartbreaking end in each of those years, narrowly missing the playoffs in one of them and quickly exiting the postseason three times in the others. A dismal 2024 season followed in which they fell to the basement of the AL East.

In different ways, each club is trying to improve their respective squads for next year, while perhaps appeasing a restive fan base. Soto would have been a possibility to do that, but that’s off the table now.

Fried, 31 years old in January, has been a strong major league pitcher for quite some time. He played briefly in the big leagues in 2017 and 2018, but has been an established player in the big leagues for the last six seasons. From 2019 to present, he has thrown 824 2/3 innings, allowing 3.06 earned runs per nine. His 23.8% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate were both slightly above average during that time, while his 54.1% groundball rate was excellent. Only Framber Valdez And Logan Webb had better ground ball rates among pitchers with at least 550 innings pitched at the time, and Fried had a slightly better strikeout rate than those two. Fried was also a key part of Atlanta’s postseason rotations during this time.

There is some injury risk as Fried was limited to 14 starts last year due to a forearm strain and had a brief IL stint in 2024 due to neuritis in the same forearm. That’s a bit concerning, but Fried managed to make 29 starts and log 174 1/3 innings this year, and there’s nothing to suggest he won’t be healthy in 2025.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR projected that Fried could get a six-year deal with $156 million guaranteed, although it’s possible Fried’s earning power has skyrocketed since then. Pitchers like Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd And Clay Holmes have exceeded expectations, and the massive Soto deal may have changed spending expectations for the industry more broadly.

The Yankees don’t necessarily need pitching. Their rotation is already pretty deep Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Clarke Smith, Luis Gil, Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes and other options on the roster. However, Fried would certainly add value to this group and they could then perhaps use the surplus to make a trade, with both Stroman and Cortes featured in previous rumors.

Boston’s Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow has said he would like to raise the ceiling of the club’s rotation, which currently consists of three core players Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello And Cutter Crawford. The Sox will get it Lucas Giolito He will return sometime in the 2025 season once he recovers from elbow surgery last year. You have depth options like Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell And Quinn Priest But the addition of Fried would help the club with its goals of improving the rotation and the club in general.

The Toronto rotation features an experienced core Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios And Chris Bassitt. That seems likely Bowden Francis will have a chance of a spot next year given how strong he was in the second half of 2024. Yariel Rodriguez is a fifth-place option, but he also has plenty of experience in relief and could be thrown into the bullpen. Jake Bloss is on the roster and has encouraging potential but limited experience and could be eligible for the Triple-A rotation.

While all three clubs are eyeing Fried, they have another option in Burnes. He has a higher ceiling than Fried, but has not reached that ceiling in the last two years. From 2020 to 2022, he posted a 2.62 ERA with a 33.4% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate, and 47.6% ground ball rate. Over the last two seasons, his 3.15 ERA was still strong, albeit with a lower strikeout rate of 24.3%. He is still viewed as a strong option due to his consistency and overall good results, with MLBTR projecting him to be guaranteed $200 million over seven years.

The Giants make sense for a rotation addition and seemingly prefer Burnes over Fried. Their rotation currently consists of Webb, Robbie Ray And Kyle Harrison. President of Baseball Operations Buster Posey said this this week Jordan Hicks will get another chance at a rotation job. Boys like Hayden birdsong And Landen Roupp could fight for fifth place, but bringing in Burnes would obviously be a boon for the group.

Both Burnes and Fried declined qualifying offers and therefore face penalties that vary depending on who ultimately signs them. The Giants are perhaps the most interesting club in this group as they have already agreed to sign a QO man Willy Adames. Since they paid the competitive balance tax last year, that means they are losing $1 million in international bonus pool space and two draft picks, while signing another QO would effectively double that amount.

The Rangers’ interest in Fried has been reported before, but it has also been described as unlikely. They definitely want rotation upgrades, including the hope of a new signing Nathan Eovaldibut they may need more clarity about their finances. They no longer have a broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group and have been thinking about building their own regional sports network, but haven’t figured it all out yet. They reportedly hope to stay under the CBT in 2025 and may need to make progress on the broadcast deal before they can spend big.

The angels are seemingly only mentioned to appeal to Fried’s possible geographical preferences. Fried was born and raised in Southern California. He then went to UCLA before being drafted by the Padres. He was traded to Atlanta as a prospect and has spent his entire major league career with them so far. This club has signed many players to contract extensions, but Fried was not one of them. Rosenthal shares that some clubs were concerned that Fried would prefer to return to the West Coast, but it appears his three main suitors are all AL East clubs.

Time will tell how things pan out with Fried and Burnes, but it appears the expected post-Soto domino effect may be occurring. As clubs turn to Plan B, Plan C or Plan D, people like Fried and Burnes are seeing their markets heating up, which could potentially impact people like Fried and Burnes as well Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso and soon others too.