Here’s what you can say about the Phillies’ first offseason move to change the mix of their offense: At first glance, it’s a mystery.

The Phillies agreed to a one-year contract with outfielder Max Kepler, league sources said Thursday night, confirming a report from MLB.com. The team did not announce the deal, which is worth $10 million, pending completion of a physical contract.

Kepler, who turns 32 in February, is coming off an injury-plagued season with the Twins in which he posted season-lows in home runs (eight) and OPS+ (91), meaning he was 9% less productive than the league average). He is also a left-handed hitter and has never played left field in 10 major league seasons.

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The Phillies are looking for an everyday left fielder or a potential platoon partner for left-hander Brandon Marsh as they decided not to offer a contract to Austin Hays. Kepler is neither one nor the other.

It’s possible the Phillies signed Kepler to prepare for another move. It’s also likely that Kepler, who has been an above-average right field defender throughout his career with the Minnesota Twins, will be comfortable playing on the left side, especially at Citizens Bank Park.

Or maybe the Phillies will move Nick Castellanos from right field to left. Over the past five seasons, Kepler ranked fifth among all-right fielders with 23 defensive runs saved.

Kepler possesses a quality as a hitter that the Phillies strive for: discipline in the strike zone. He has swung 25.3% of balls outside the zone in his career, which is better than the league average (28.5%) and the Phillies’ mark last season (30.3%). That’s not insignificant for a lineup full of aggressive hitters who are often attacked with throws outside the zone.

Otherwise, Kepler hasn’t come close to matching his career best from the 2019 season, when he hit 36 ​​homers and posted an OPS of .855. Since then, he has surpassed 20 home runs and an .800 OPS just once, both in 2023.

Last season, Kepler was only able to play in 105 games because of patellar tendinopathy in his left knee and a related hip problem. He batted .253, reached base at a .302 clip and posted an OPS of .682.

“It’s not the way I want to go out as a twin, but then again, things happen,” Kepler told reporters in September. “The game presents many unexpected adversities and challenges, and I am proud of myself for what I have accomplished as an individual, as a teammate, as a friend to everyone in this clubhouse and over the past few years.”

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Like newly signed reliever Jordan Romano, who also agreed to a one-year deal, the Phillies likely view Kepler as an experienced player with a solid track record who will be motivated to reassert his value for a return to the free-agent market next winter to build.

Kepler was the Twins’ longest-tenured player. He signed with them in 2009 as a 16-year-old amateur from Germany, came through the farm system and made his major league debut in September 2015.

The Phillies’ outfield now consists of Castellanos, Kepler, Marsh and Johan Rojas. If Kepler is slated for everyday at-bats in a corner of the outfield, Marsh and Rojas could form a platoon in center. The Phillies ranked 20th and 15th in OPS out of center field (.644) and left field (.710) last season, with Rojas and Marsh making most of the offense at those positions.

Hays, a right-handed hitter, was acquired in a deadline trade in July to bolster the offense in left field. But he struggled with a hamstring injury and a kidney infection that affected his production. With his salary expected to rise to $6.8 million in arbitration, the Phillies decided to move on.

The free agent outfield market wasn’t big except for megastar Juan Soto, who signed a game-changing $756 million contract with the New York Mets. Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernández and Jurickson Profar are among the next tier of free agents, and while none have signed yet, all are believed to be seeking deals north of $20 million per year – and reportedly for multiple years.

By committing $10 million to Kepler, the Phillies increased their projected payroll to about $296 million, calculated for the luxury tax. The highest luxury tax threshold is $301 million. Every dollar spent above this limit is subject to a 110% tariff.

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