After Juan Soto’s mega-deal with the Mets, Shohei Ohtani seems like a real bargain

After Juan Soto’s mega-deal with the Mets, Shohei Ohtani seems like a real bargain

DALLAS — When the news broke, the number was staggering and its enormity difficult to grasp.

It’s only been 366 days since the Los Angeles Dodgers and Shohei Ohtani agreed to a 10-year, $700 million contract. At first glance, the number was staggering and made headlines. It was also by far the largest expenditure in MLB history, wiping out the 12-year, $426 million contract extension that Mike Trout had signed with Ohtani’s former club, the Los Angeles Angels, less than five years earlier .

But the more details came to light, the more complex the agreement became. A whopping $680 million — $68 million per season — would be set aside until the end of the 10 years. During his playing days with the Dodgers, Ohtani only took home $2 million per season. The huge remainder would be distributed later, in annual increments of $68 million, from 2034 to 2043.

This unusual structure reduced the current value of Ohtani’s contract from $700 million to about $460 million, depending on the rate of inflation. An unusual sum, certainly, but no longer an otherworldly, unprecedented number.

And now, after Juan Soto’s landmark 15-year, $765 million deal with the New York Mets, Ohtani’s deal with the Dodgers looks like an epic bargain.

Soto’s deal is actually what Ohtani’s contract initially looked like: unique, record-breaking, incomprehensible. Unlike Ohtani’s contract, Soto’s contract does not include any deferred money. There is a $75 million signing bonus and an opt-out after the fifth year. The value of this agreement, negotiated by agent Scott Boras, is actually $765 million, more than $300 million more than Ohtani’s estimate.

It’s an absurd number that was pushed to stratospheric heights by a bitter bidding war between Mets owner Steve Cohen and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner. The flames of this furious showdown were skillfully fanned by Boras, pitting the two billionaires against each other to drive up the price.

Ohtani and his representative Nez Balelo did not pursue this strategy as aggressively during his time as a free agent. It became clear early in Ohtani’s process that he preferred to remain on the West Coast. Neither the Yankees nor the Mets were seriously involved. That limited the final cap, which Ohtani didn’t seem to be worried about at all given his immense marketability.

The extent of Ohtani’s popularity is another difference between the 2024 NL MVP and Soto, a generational talent. A recent report from Jack Harris of the LA Times estimates that the Dodgers will make nine figures in 2024 with their new star.

To be fair, Ohtani’s first year in Dodger blue was admittedly a perfect storm. Winning the MVP and a World Series in his first year was beyond his wildest dreams and certainly helped solidify his financial clout. But as many pundits have predicted, the advertising revenue that Ohtani brings will essentially pay for the contract.

Soto, an extremely popular player, doesn’t have nearly that influence. He’s a great hitter, even a future Hall of Famer, but he’s not a global cultural icon like Ohtani. Soto’s arrival in Queens will sell tickets and revitalize the fan base, yes. But that won’t return the Mets hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising revenue per year.

Such things hardly interest Cohen, who is one of the richest people in the world. But the dynamic is a great reminder that a year after the initial sticker shock, Ohtani’s “$700 million” deal already looks like a bargain.

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