OOn January 30, 2015, Bayern Munich lost for the first time this season in the Bundesliga, 4-1 at Wolfsburg. Pep Guardiola was worried. They had dropped six points from their first 17 league games and the title was almost certainly secured, but Wolfsburg, inspired by Kevin De Bruyne, had beaten them on the counterattack.

The space left by Guardiola’s teams behind the high defensive line had always been a weak point, could not help but be a weak point, but something had gone wrong with the press which gave Wolfsburg freedom. And if Wolfsburg could exploit it, Europe’s elite would certainly be able to.

As options and ideas swirled around in his head, Guardiola decided he had to go back to basic principles. He wrote his “Bible,” as he called it, on the board in his office: Two against four in attack; an extra man in midfield; an extra man in defense. These are explicitly Cruyffian values, with the second and third commandments reflecting what Guardiola wrote in his 2001 memoirs when explaining the Dutchman’s philosophy about the need to “fill the middle of the pitch, to play with superior numbers”.

Football and Guardiola have moved on since then, but as he faces perhaps his biggest crisis as a coach and the tension is clear in the welts he scratched his scalp during Feyenoord’s unlikely comeback at Manchester City on Tuesday, he must the temptation to go back to basics can be great.

If the “Bible” remains as it was a decade ago, that means Guardiola will go for a 4-4-2 against Liverpool’s 4-3-3 on Sunday (it must be said that he didn’t follow his own advice against Barcelona ). in the 2015 Champions League semi-final on the grounds that Dani Alves was such an attacking full-back and Lionel Messi was such an attacking full-back sui generis that the usual rules did not apply; The three-man chain he deployed was overrun, which ultimately led to a 3-0 defeat.

Is a 4-4-2 a viable option? Had Julian Álvarez not been sold he might have been able to play with Erling Haaland, but it is perhaps more likely to be a 4-2-3-1 – Guardiola’s assistant Juanma Lillo was one of the pioneers of the system at Cultural Leonesa three decades ago – with Phil Foden in central action in front of Haaland. But Foden is more of an attacking midfielder than a second striker, and if he were to try to force Virgil van Dijk and whoever replaces Ibrahima Konaté into defense, that would mean the wide players would have to play very closely to avoid an overload to create in midfield.

Guardiola’s bible would require a narrow foursome to combat Liverpool’s threesome, but with Rodri and Mateo Kovacic injured and Ilkay Gündogan so battered that he could play for Erik ten Hag’s Manchester United, it is not at all clear that they have the personnel for that have. Perhaps Bernardo Silva and Matheus Nunes could be deployed alongside Gündogan and, if fit, De Bruyne. Perhaps Rico Lewis, who has youthful energy if not much muscle, could return, or Foden could play on the left and use Jack Grealish against Haaland. But none of those options match the city’s authority from a month ago.

In fact, the shape doesn’t really seem to be the problem. In recent weeks there has been an extraordinary feeling that a club is imploding. Even before defeats, City had struggled against Newcastle, Wolves, Fulham and Southampton. Injuries haven’t helped, some players are looking old and questions can be asked about recruitment given some of these absences, but what was most shocking was the lack of fundamental commitment. Is there a general sense of unease as the hearing into the Premier League allegations continues? Is the team fed up with Guardiola’s intensity? Has the hunger after so much success diminished? Something fundamental seems to be broken.

De Bruyne spent most of the final minutes against Feyenoord pointing and shouting; Nobody made the runs so he could move the ball forward – and for a system based on making the game almost permanent rondo this is a big problem. But no one made any attempts to defend themselves.

The third goal, scored in the final minute with City ahead by one goal, came on a five-on-three break. Ederson’s attack from his goal didn’t help, but where was everyone else? Why did Nunes stop pursuing Jordan Lotomba before the second? Josko Gvardiol and Ederson have started making big mistakes. City have conceded 17 goals in their last six games.

So what are City doing on Sunday? Calm down and try to keep a clean sheet, something only Nottingham Forest have managed against Liverpool this season? That would be the orthodox solution, but due to injuries City have no midfield and gaps in defense. Plus, it’s just not Guardiola’s style: will his team sit really deep and try to play Haaland for a long time?

This is a great opportunity for Liverpool. They already had an eight-point lead at the start of the weekend. For them, a draw is a good result but – and in this respect Arsenal’s draw with City last March, when a win would have opened a four-point gap, is perhaps a useful precedent – they also have the opportunity to deliver a devastating blow to City to relocate. An 11-point lead wouldn’t be decisive with 25 games remaining, but it would provide significant margin for error.

Who can City use at left-back who could even begin to counteract an in-form Mohamed Salah? Given Lewis’ inexperience and Gvardiol’s addled mind, Guardiola would probably like to use Nathan Aké there, but he has only just returned from injury and could be needed in the center anyway. If Kyle Walker returns at right-back, Luis Díaz could do some serious damage if, as it appears, Walker’s pace has waned.

But underlying every tactical question is the nagging feeling that none of it matters. This is about City and Guardiola and their particularly intense psychodrama; Liverpool are league leaders, but their role seems strangely subordinate. Guardiola is a great coach and his squad is full of quality; they could still get out of it. But in the last few days the first serious thoughts emerged that this could be the end.