It’s two days before Christmas. I know that some people in the United States dream of a white Christmas. However, the weather forecast suggests that a “warm Christmas” is more likely. Here’s a quick rundown of what to expect in the United States and why you might need to adapt the lyrics to Bing Crosby’s iconic song this year.

As I write this article on December 23rd, my meteorological curiosity led me to the current temperature anomaly map. More than half of the United States is already experiencing warmer than normal temperatures. Cold air continues to prevail across the eastern United States, but will ease in the coming days. Furthermore, I see no signs that Arctic air will “trickle down” into the US this week. However, things will change in 2025, but I will explain that later.

Unfortunately, there’s no guarantee of a white Christmas in places like New York City, which had a blanket of snow this weekend. The National Weather Service’s temperature outlook expects temperatures to be warmer than normal across most of the United States through Christmas Day, after a cool start to the week in the East. The NWS Weather Prediction Center wrote: “Temperatures are expected to be generally above average across the rest of the country in late December, particularly in the central and southern Plains, where daily maximum temperatures could be 15 to 20 degrees above average.”

In places like Texas, that means highs will approach the upper 60s and 70s. In New York City, the weekend’s light snow cover will likely melt as temperatures rise into the 30s or 40s.

These temperature forecasts are ideal for children looking to ride new bikes, scooters or hoverboards. Unfortunately, based on my anecdotal observations of activities in my neighborhood over the past few years, I believe these activities were more common in our childhood, but I digress. The weather forecast is not ideal for outdoor activities in some parts of the country on Christmas Day. There is a chance of rain across the Great Plains, the South, the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest. Mixed precipitation could also occur in the Mountain West region.

Temperatures are expected to remain warmer than normal through New Year’s Day. Remember that it is still winter, so “warmer than normal” is relative. I recently shared a meme reminding people that the Earth’s axial tilt is the “reason for the seasons.” The Northern Hemisphere tilts away from the sun, so temperatures tend to be colder in winter. Even as the climate warms, guess what? We will continue to have winters, cold days and snowstorms.

As the first weeks of 2025 begin, temperatures are expected to return to colder than normal across much of the country. In fact, it is likely to be one of the coldest air temperatures of the year so far. If you like cold weather and snow, the start of the new year could be good for your holiday wishes.

Happy holidays.