In this game, two teams compete against each other that look similar in terms of balance sheet, but could not be more different in their statistical profile. Ultimately, it is the context surrounding each team’s season that makes me support Bowling Green in this competition. The Falcons are certainly better than their record, coming off a brutal non-conference schedule and playing the most difficult conference schedule of any MAC contender. This was a team that was pretty unlucky in terms of box scores as well, as Bowling Green should have finished with at least 8 wins based on second tier win totals. Despite all that, if world tight end Harold Fanin Jr. doesn’t get injured before the MAC title game earlier this month, we could be talking about the Falcons facing a tougher opponent than the one they face in this game . Bowling Green ranks in the top 30 in pass success rate on offense, 24th in pass success rate allowed and 29th in points per drive allowed on defense (College Football Insiders). So this is clearly a versatile team on both sides of the ball; one that deserves to be a big favorite in this game.

As for Arkansas State, I firmly believe the Red Wolves could be the worst team to play in a bowl game this season. Much like Old Dominion in 2023, this is a team that has won almost all of its games by a single possession, and it has actually distinguished itself as a team that should have won four games rather than the 7-5 record it has they ended up with. In fact, Arkansas State only had a single win against a team that qualified for a bowl game, and on top of that, the Red Wolves won that game against South Alabama by just 2 points. Butch Jones did a solid job in Jonesboro, but this is still a defense that ranks 130th in success rate allowed, 130th in early downs EPA and 124th in points per drive this season . That doesn’t bode well against Fannin Jr. and a veteran Bowling Green offensive lineman (32nd in EPA per dropback) who should be rested and motivated to finish off his best season in nearly a decade. Let’s clear points with the Falcons.

Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green Prediction: Bowling Green +7.5 (-115) available at time of publication. Playable up to 8 (-120).