MIAMI- No. 6 Penn State and No. 7 Notre Dame meet today in a College Football Playoff semifinal game at Hard Rock Stadium, home to the Orange Bowl. The 13-2 Nittany Lions are a 1.5-point underdog and the over/under betting total is 44.5. Points. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Our weekly selection gives you a final, comprehensive look at what data systems and experts are saying before you start. And as always, be sure to check your sportsbook of choice for line changes and remember to gamble responsibly!

Computer Model Selection for Penn State-Notre Dame

ESPN Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a final score of 25-25 when the round came into play. Using decimal points, he picks Penn State to win by 0.3 points. That would be a Nittany Lion cover, a pick for the over.

Sportsline sees a 25-23 triumph for the Nittany Lions. This is also a choice for the over.

The XMOV model of the Athletic by Austin Mock predicts a final score of 24:24. His model also has the Lions ahead of the Fighting Irish by just decimal places. It is also another score that would mean the overhits.

Finally, the Dark Index projects a 3-point win by Penn State. The Under likes it as it demands 41 total points in the competition.

Lions-Fighting Irish selection from a national perspective

Bill Bender of The Sporting News likes the under and calls for a 23-20 Notre Dame win. He writes:

“Will Notre Dame generate a passing attack with Leonard, who is 38 of 56 (67.9%) and averaging 145.5 passing yards in two playoff games? Receiver Jordan Faison has been a popular target, but the Irish are focused on the running game with Leonard, Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price and Aneyas Williams. All three running backs are averaging 6.0 yards per carry or more, and Leonard is averaging 55 rushing yards per game in the CFP. How does Penn State slow down this running game? All-American edge rusher Abdul Carter suffered an apparent left arm injury in the second round. Will he play for the Nittany Lions?

“The Irish are 4-0-1 ATS when advantaged by seven points or fewer this season. The Nittany Lions find themselves in an underdog role – where they are 0-6 S/U and 1-5 ATS since 2022. Turnovers will be key and we believe the Irish will win this battle and get a win, perhaps on a walk-off field goal from Mitch Jeter.”

Matchups: Who will come out on top in the Orange Bowl?

At Bleacher Report, David Kenyon features a close battle with the Fighting Irish winning 24-19.

“Seriously, if the defense plays as expected, the outcome will be decided at the margins; In particular, think about efficiency and red-zone sales,” he writes. “Penn State has a slight edge in the former, while ND is more adept at preparing takeaways. This clash is essentially a statistical wash. I’m leaning toward Notre Dame because it has a more versatile rushing attack with quarterback Riley Leonard, but I wouldn’t bat an eyelid if you favor Penn State in such a balanced game.”

FOX Sports analyst Joel Klatt sides with Notre Dameto.

“I don’t know if Penn State learned a lesson,” he said. “Why didn’t they win the decisive victory? Because of things like that. Because in these games you can’t constantly defeat yourself and your opponents. You have to play it right. That’s why I’m going to trust Notre Dame in this game. I think it’s going to be tight. I think Notre Dame wins 24-20, I think they cover the 1.5, the scoring is a little low, I think it’s going to be a great game and I can’t wait.”

Beat the authors’ predictions for Penn State-Notre Dame

At The Center Daily Times, Jon Sauber Penn State has it 21, Notre Dame 20.

“I could go either way with this game,” he writes. “I don’t think there will be many points and I think it will come down to the fourth quarter. Beyond that, who’s to say? These teams play very similarly and rely on a dominant defense to carry them. I give Penn State the advantage because it can do more in the passing game, which gives the Nittany Lions a better chance to create game-changing plays.”

Frank Bodani picks it 21-17 in favor of the Fighting Irish.

How BHI staff chose Lions-Fighting Irish

Nate Bauer: PSU: 26, Notre Dame: 20
Sean Fitz: PSU: 26, ND: 23
Thomas Frank Carr: PSU: 31, Notre Dame 27
Matt Herb: Notre Dame: 24, PSU: 20
Greg Pickel: PSU: 24, ND: 20
Ryan Snyder: PSU: 24, Notre Dame: 20