turkey

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Bashar Assad were once friends, but the Turkish leader supported the uprising when it erupted nearly 14 years ago – largely because Turkey’s geopolitical rival Iran supported the Syrian regime.

Turkey has been the main sponsor of armed Islamist opposition groups in Syria. And as the war developed and the moderate and more secular pro-democracy rebel factions fell by the wayside or were outmaneuvered by their tougher and more disciplined Islamist rivals, Ankara’s hand grew stronger. Assad’s ouster is now likely to help Erdoğan advance his geopolitical agenda and provide him with the opportunity to achieve several strategic goals, including containing Kurdish separatists in northeastern Syria who have close ties to Kurdish separatists in Turkey. The necessary reconstruction will also prove to be a gold mine for Turkish companies.

“Huge victory for Türkiye – brilliant move by Erdoğan,” said Timothy Ash, an economist and commentator, in a post on X.

Israel

Iran quickly accused Israel of plotting Assad’s overthrow; When Aleppo fell to the rebels, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said it was a “conspiracy by the Israeli regime to destabilize the region.” Although it is convenient for Tehran to blame the Zionists – and Israel’s military humiliation of Hezbollah has certainly helped the rebels in Syria – there is no evidence of direct Israeli military aid. Furthermore, such assistance would not have been necessary given Turkey’s patronage of the rebels.

Nonetheless, Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu bowed deeply to Assad’s downfall, saying the Syrian leader’s downfall was “the direct result of our violent action against Hezbollah and Iran, Assad’s main backer.” It set off a chain reaction of everyone who dissented from it “We want to free ourselves from tyranny and its oppression.” However, he emphasized that, despite the great opportunity it offers, this “historic day” is “also associated with considerable dangers.” He ordered Israeli troops to take over Syrian army positions after they were abandoned in the buffer zone between Israel and Syria in the Golan Heights to “ensure that no enemy force establishes itself directly on Israel’s border” and to be ready for any chaos that could break out in Syria.

The overthrow of Assad clearly benefits Israel. It represents a further weakening of Iran’s regional power and eliminates a key member of Tehran’s so-called resistance axis. Without Assad and a friendly regime in Syria, Iran will have no land routes to supply its partner Hezbollah and support the group in its war with Israel, making the militant Lebanese Shiite movement another clear loser from Assad’s ouster. This could also make Lebanon a winner if the country manages to escape Hezbollah’s rule and become a more normal country.