The first round of the Australian Open begins on day one with 16 men’s matches scheduled for Sunday. There’s set to be some incredible action Down Under and – as always – here at LastWordOnTennis we’ll be sharing our thoughts on every single game. We have divided the 16 games of the day into four articles. The other articles are about Kei Nishikori vs. Thiago Monteiro, Alexander Zverev vs. Lucas Pouille and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Juncheng Shang. Ateet Shrivastava, Ismael Gonzalez and Yesh Ginsburg predict this game. Who do you think will advance?

Men’s Australian Open Day 1 Predictions

Tomas Machac vs Sumit Nagal

Ateet: Tomas Machac will look to build on his impressive performance in the United Cup and reach the later stages. Sumit Nagal qualified well for the main draw in Auckland and played a good game against Alex Michelsen. However, Machac has more weapons and more upside and should win this handily.
Prediction: Machac in 3rd

Ishmael: Machac unexpectedly left while leading against Taylor Fritz in the United Cup, but he apparently had cramps, which are not serious. When he’s healthy, he’s a great player. He dominated Cobolli and defeated Hurkacz in the same tournament, helping Ruud to a deciding set. Nagal has lost eight of its last ten games, defeating only Mannarino and Klintcharov. He is not at the level that will bring Machac to court.
Prediction: Machac in 3rd

Yes: Is Machac healthy? That’s the big question. Because if that’s the case, his current form suggests he could be one of the favorites to go deep in this tournament. He really flipped a switch in 2024. Will it continue?
Prediction: Machac in 4th

Adam Walton vs. Quentin Halys

Ateet: 25-year-old Australian Adam Walton is aiming for his first match win at his home slam and Quentin Halys is standing in his way. Halys has a big serve that will be effective on these courts, but his fitness is questionable after he retired early in his qualifying match last week.
Prediction: Halys in 4

Ishmael: Walton continues to improve and secure victories over ATP players like Hijikata and Lajovic. He probably lacks the firepower and aggression necessary to be in the top 50, but he’s very solid. Halys is exactly the opposite: highly talented and powerful, but inconsistent. While Halys is probably a better player at his peak, he was eliminated by Bradshaw and Walton will have the support of the crowd so the Australian should be able to outlast him.
Prediction: Walton in 5th

Yes: Both players are potential solid top-30 stars. And yet I’m not entirely sure either will ever get there. But they are still capable of great tennis and should give us an entertaining game. I trust Halys a little more at this stage.
Prediction: Halys in 5

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Luciano Darderi vs. Pedro Martinez

Ateet: Luciano Darderi has a lot of talent and has proven it several times in 2024. But he hasn’t quite figured out how to play his best tennis on hard courts. Pedro Martinez is a tough opponent and I expect this game to be very close.
Prediction: Martinez in 5th

Ishmael: A great opportunity for two clay court players. Darderi made his breakthrough on the ATP Tour last year, winning Cordoba and breaking into the top 50. But on hard courts it’s a different story; he has won just two of his last 16 games. Even if Martinez isn’t particularly strong on the surface, he at least wins some games. It could really go either way, but the Spaniard gets the nod in this battle between the 44th and 43rd ranked clay court players.
Prediction: Martinez in 5th

Yes: Both are solid players. Darderi certainly has more potential, although Martinez is often more consistent. I think Darderi will work through Martinez’s baseline game in the best-of-five.
Prediction: Darderi in 4th

Casper Ruud versus Jaume Munar

Ateet: Casper Ruud had a great performance in the United Cup and beat some top players. The run at the ATP Finals appears to have revived his form and he will be a force to be reckoned with in Melbourne. Munar will fight for every point and had some good wins last week, but he doesn’t have the weapons to trouble the Norwegian.
Prediction: Ruud in 4th

Ishmael: Munar had a surprisingly good start to 2025, missing out on a tiebreaker to reach the final in Hong Kong and defeating Davidovich, Borges and Musetti. However, it’s hard to believe that he’s suddenly a great hard court player. Additionally, Ruud has been great in recent months, reaching the semi-finals of the ATP Finals and defeating Machac and Hurkacz at the United Cup. He shouldn’t have any problems with it.
Prediction: Ruud in 3

Yes: This is a tricky first round game. Munar can frustrate opponents and his counter-punching game is a perfect contrast to Ruud’s slightly more aggressive style. Ultimately, Ruud makes everything better, but that might be a lot closer than people expect.
Prediction: Ruud in 5th

Main photo credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports