The trip from Alabama to Grand Forks, North Dakota, was obviously a kind gesture from the staff to Grant Nelson – seven states and 1,400 miles away, it’s difficult for friends and family to get to Tuscaloosa, let alone keep up with the roving tide to keep.

This is probably where the interest begins and ends. Nelson’s homecoming in front of around 3,000 people will arouse many emotions for the local hero. But the game itself is a mismatch that should probably get Alabama convicted of war crimes at The Hague: There will be carnage on the field.

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History of the tape: North Dakota (No. 303, 4-8) vs. Alabama (No. 7, 8-2)

Spread (Total): Alabama -23.5 (O/U 163.5)

Opponent KenPom: 303 (224 Attack, 345 Defense, 160 Speed)
Opponent Evan Miya: 309 (236 Attack, 339 Defense, 187 Speed)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 304 (240 Attack, 331 Defense, 187 Speed)
Opponent NET: N/R (Q4)
Opponent’s best win: N/A
Opponent’s worst loss: N/A

Alabama KenPom: 8. (6 Off, 36. Defense, 8. Pace)
Evan Miya: 7. (3 Off, 17. Defense, 2. Pace)
Bart Torvik: 7 (3 out, 27th defense, 7th pace)
NET ranking: 10 (3-2 Q1)
Best win: No. 4 (N) Houston
Worst loss: No. 28 at Purdue

It’s hard to write in an engaging way about the little brother of Grant Nelson’s old team, the Fightin’ Hawks of UND.

It’s a bad team and a particularly bad offense. If there’s one nice thing to say about UND, it’s that they’ve occasionally punched way out of their weight class, scoring nice upset victories over Utah Valley, Loyola Marymount and Weber State – all between 180 and 210 in KenPom. If they can get you to patiently play basketball and keep things 70s style, they’ve given themselves a puncher’s chance at home.

And that should tell you what the strength of this group is, which is on a curve: a defense that has occasionally outperformed its expected performance (ranked 161st based on adjusted schedule). In their four wins, the Hawks have won the battle to win, and in three of them UND had more free throws than their opponents.

The first thing you need to know about UND is that it is a very diverse team. It’s rare to see many men having good nights at the same time; Rather, the MO consists of one or two players taking a break while the rest of the bench has an average night. This lack of consistent, multiple scoring options has already cost UND several close games this year. This is also reflected in her shoot. This is a terrible team from the floor, shooting just 45% (329), and they are even worse from distance (28.5%). In fact, there isn’t a single player on the entire roster who would be described as a three-point specialist.

As you’d expect on the Northern Plains, they’re a tall team on average – especially for a Summit bottom feeder who averages nearly six feet tall. But there is no dominant big one. The closest approximation to the usual “Giant White Midwest Guy in the Post” is the 6-foot-3 Amar Kuljuhovic. He is the Hawks’ second-leading scorer (12) and their best rebounder (7). He’s not a great fullback, is a pretty poor shooter for a big player (54%), and turns over a lot – although he defends reasonably well in central defense and in the rush.

The scoring is balanced, with four of five starters averaging more than 10 a night, but the star of the show is Jr. PG Treysen Eaglestaff. The local boy is a tall point guard at 6’3″ tall and leads the Hawks in both points (18) and assists. Dariyus Woodson occupies the SF spot and is a very effective rebounder for a winger. He’s also shown some flashes from outside the arc in recent games.

Off the bench, 6-foot-1 Brian Mathews is the best defender and street sweeper (he actually leads UND in rebounds per possession). He’s an inconsistent scorer, but when the Hawks get a chance to eat, they’ll send him deep. Eli King will probably get more minutes in this film. He is the first player to come off the bench and is the most effective defender. He’s not the goalscorer like Eaglestaff or Panoam, but he’s the mythical spark plug who does a lot of the dirty work.

AND also gives you an unusual look: Kuljuhovic in the striker-center position, followed by a swing, and then a trio of real guards – and sometimes even four guards and a swing look. It’s tempting to call it a “small lineup” unless you consider that a dozen of their guards are 6-foot-2. And of the starters, the “small” shooting guard, Mier Panoam, is still 1.90 meters tall. That size is likely why 75% of the starting backcourt averages between four and six rebounds a night as part of UND’s team approach (we’ve seen Creighton try to do the same).

Without a presence in the post, UND must create its second chance with a concerted effort by breaking down the glass. It pays off as this is easily one of the best offensive rebounding teams Bama has ever faced (36). But without that big man, they tend to end up at the defensive end.

Therefore, the Hawks would prefer to win selectively and not put their assets in the hands of opposing bigs. They want to look good the first time on offense, and on defense they focus on on-ball defense. As you would expect with this approach, NoDak necessarily plays a deliberate, slower game than the Tide is used to from more talented teams . But if it works, they can be quite competitive against most T3/T4 teams.

But let’s be under no illusions here either: Not only is this an objectively bad team (4-8), it’s also statistically bad, and by far the worst team Alabama has played in multiple seasons (IIRC, Alabama had one similar game with Coleman). back in 2021). Is this likely to get a laugh? You can bet on it. The worst squad Bama has faced so far, No. 177 Asheville, was doubled by the Tide 110-54. And if Alabama wants to keep the pressure on here or starts making some perimeter shots, the Tide can probably call their own score.

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Conclusion

This will be a show for the Tide, a chance to snap out of their panic, valuable playing time for Mallette and Youngblood, and most importantly, a reward for Grant Nelson. But it’s not just a homecoming for Nelson, it’s also significant for the Hawks. Half of their roster is from North Dakota. They will do their best. It’s not a poorly coached team at all; It’s simply a team that lacks impactful talent.

At the end of the day, you can’t help but believe that Nate Oats will work to clean up ‘Bama’s turnovers and shots and get all those backup players plenty of quality playing time on the road. With SEC play starting in just two weeks, trust is required.

Here’s how to watch

8:00 p.m. central on CBS Sports Network, Dec. 18

forecast

Nate Oats isn’t exactly known for his merciful nature. Not that he’d ask guys like Derrion Reid, Houston Mallette or Aiden Sherrell to take their foot off the gas when they finally get significant minutes under their belt.

Alabama can and probably will call its score here. The Tide interior game and pace of play will simply be far too much for the Hawks to even come close to keeping up.

Alabama 106
North Dakota 58

Hope for the best.
Roll Tide.