PFF breaks down Week 15 Monday Night Football Doubleheader by reviewing team records, key trends and game breakdowns before placing the best bet, powered by PFF’s proven betting model.

Game overview

The race for the NFC North title is heating up as the Vikings are hot on the heels of the Lions, who currently lead both the division and the NFC standings.

Minnesota is on a roll, having won six games in a row and is undefeated since the start of November. However, their performance in the betting markets has been less impressive, with a record of 3-2-1 against the spread (ATS) over this period. This is largely due to oddsmakers adjusting their expectations, forcing the Vikings to cover larger spreads. As a result, they hold a modest 5-4-1 ATS record as favorites this season.

Conversely, the Bears continue to falter and are now trying to find momentum to build on for next season. Chicago has lost seven straight games and remains winless since its Week 7 bye. Although they showed improvement in November with a 2-0-1 record against the spread (ATS) to end the month, they stumbled in December, most recently suffering a blowout loss to San Francisco.

This matchup will be crucial for the Vikings. A loss to the struggling Bears could end their hopes of achieving the near-impossible feat of capturing the NFC crown. So Minnesota can’t afford to ignore Chicago.

QB Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings: Over 21.5 completions (+102)

The Vikings’ success in 2024 is largely due to the resurgence of Sam Darnold lead the crime. His recent standout performances have placed him in the top five of PFF’s passing grade for the season, with a league-leading passing grade of 92.3 since Week 11.

Darnold thrives on Kevin O’Connell’s tactics, displaying top-notch accuracy while keeping the defense honest with well-timed deep shots. He has an adjusted completion rate of 75.1% this season and excels at short passes. On throws of 9 yards or shorter, Darnold leads the NFL with an adjusted completion rate of 90.8%, demonstrating precise control and efficiency.

Game overview

The second matchup may lack star power, but it has real significance for the Falcons’ postseason hopes.

Atlanta has gone from leading the NFC South to fighting for survival after losing four straight games. Despite being underdogs in three of those losses, the Falcons have not covered the spread in any game since Week 9, posting a disappointing 5-8 record against the spread (ATS). The last time Atlanta was favored on the road was in Week 10 against New Orleans, where they were a 3.5-point favorite but lost 20-17.

Meanwhile, the Raiders have shown little fight this season and are currently on a nine-game losing streak, with their last win coming in September. Despite being a big underdog most weeks, Vegas has gone just 1-4 ATS since the start of November despite scoring five or more points in every matchup.

RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: Over 17.5 runs (-115)

With Kirk CousinsWith the effectiveness under center increasingly in question, the running game is carrying the load for the Falcons’ offense. Much of this credit comes from Bijan Robinsonwho holds one of the top three PFF rushing grades (90.9) among running backs this season.

Robinson has seen the volume you would expect from a top back, ranking seventh in the NFL with 215 carries. In his last five games, he has exceeded 17.5 runs in four of them. This production comes despite Tyler Allgeier By splitting the workload, 17 carries are logged in the last two games RobinsonThe 48 wears during this period.