• WR CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys – over 67.5 receiving yards: Plagued by holes in the backcourt, this Bengals defense has allowed an open target on 58.6% of its coverage snaps and a reception of 15 or more yards on 22.7% – both of which rank in the bottom five during that span the NFL.

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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

Game overview

Accordingly, neither franchise has more than a 2% chance of making the playoffs PFF’s modelThe chances of this game having a significant impact are extremely slim.

However, this game is quite interesting on the betting markets. The Cowboys managed to record two wins to close out November, ending a streak of five failed coverages. Dallas overcame its difficulties at home – where the team was 1-5 and against the spread – with its first home win of the year last week.

These positive trends for Dallas will be put to the test against a Bengals team that has performed well on the road in the betting markets. Cincinnati holds a 5-1 away record against the spread, including a 3-0 mark as a favorite.

Joe BurrowCincinnati’s phenomenal season – he has the NFL’s highest passing grade through Week 13 – has been marred by Cincinnati’s struggling defense, particularly in this crucial stretch of games. Since Week 8, the Bengals have the league’s lowest defensive grade overall (56.5) and rank last in EPA allowed per game.

Conversely, Dallas’ defense has seen a resurgence in recent weeks with the return of Micah Parsons And DaRon Bland for installation. With both players back and setting the tone for this unit, the Cowboys defense ranks second in EPA per plays allowed over the last two weeks.

WR CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys: Over 67.5 receiving yards (-112)

The change to Cooper Rush under center has understandably led to a decline in Lamb production. In Rush’s four starts, Lamb has surpassed that receiving line just once – in Week 11. The volume remains on his side, however, as the talented receiver ranks fifth in targets (37) since Week 10. If the chances continue, Lamb’s performance will be expected to bounce back in this favorable matchup against a porous Bengals secondary.

Cincinnati’s difficult coverage unit was a key factor in the team’s disappointing season. Since Week 8, the Bengals have ranked last in the EPA in passes allowed. This defense, plagued by holes in the back end, has allowed an open target on 58.6% of its coverage snaps and a reception of 15 or more yards on 22.7% of snaps – both marks ranking in the bottom five in the league during that span NFL.

This Bengals secondary has allowed a receiver to exceed that limit in each of their last six games. In their last two games alone, they gave up a total of 197 receiving yards and eight receptions of 15 or more yards to the Steelers WR George Pickens and chargers WR Ladd McConkey.