Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and the San Francisco 49ers meet the Buffalo Bills and quarterback Josh Allen, who is newly engaged to his long-time girlfriend Hailee Steinfeld. It’s a desperate point for the Niners in their hotly contested and still winnable NFC West. It’s another opportunity for James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Dawson Knox & Co. to show us that the Bills can make anyone eat on offense.

And speaking of food, we’ve all been waiting for McCaffrey’s breakout game. It’s been a disappointing three weeks for McCaffrey supporters and Niners fans alike.

However, I like that he has his best game of the season tonight.

Christian McCaffrey 125+ Rushing + Receiving Yards (+200)

I enjoyed scaling up a replacement for Josh Allen’s rushing yards this weekalso, and I’d like to do the same here for CMC’s Rushing + Receiving Total. This game has all the makings of a cross-conference battle that should meet or exceed the expected total, so I believe there is still plenty of yardage to be gained.

And what would the reeling Niners do if they left McCaffrey in prime time? The market is obviously a little uncertain about McCaffrey’s usage in this game, as the juice jump from over 100 R/R yards to over 125 R/R yards is a whopping +115. 25 yards is a breakout run for McCaffrey and the Niners. It’s not that big of a jump.

Listen, I think McCaffrey is good for his 100+ at -115 if you want to be a little safer. Maybe it depends on how your fate unfolds in the early/evening window. But according to NFL Next Gen Stats, CMC has appeared for 87.9% of the 49ers’ offensive snaps since Week 10. But his rush yards above expectations (RYOE) is a dismal -33. That’s even worse considering McCaffrey led the league in RYOE in 2023 (+349).

More unfortunate stats for the 49ers running game from NFL NGS: McCaffrey’s first-touch behind-line-of-scrimmage rate of 58.1% this season is 23.2% higher than it was in 2023. The 49ers don’t have him well protected; or McCaffrey simply didn’t see the holes.

This is simply a positive regression bet. McCaffrey needs to recover from that crazy speculation about his hamstring/calf injuries from the offseason. He hasn’t reached that number once, but in Week 11 he hit 100+.

Conclusion

I’m betting on talent here. I’m betting the primetime 49ers look a lot like the 2023 49ers tonight, which might be a bit of a pipe dream with their patchwork offensive line. But 125-plus scrimmage yards were once easy work for McCaffrey.

I have a little nostalgia for the two-to-one juice.

Best Bet: Christian McCaffrey 125+ Rushing + Receiving Yards (+200)

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I’m a Promoter at DraftKings and also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9). Sometimes I play the games I give advice on on my personal account. Although I have expressed my personal opinions on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the opinion(s) of DraftKings and are not a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment when compiling their lineups. I may also use players and strategies other than those recommended above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to non-public information.