If you want some chaos with your turkey and dressing, you’ve come to the right place.

This week’s Big 12 Chaos Meter: 6/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯

In the final week of the regular season, the chaos meter was kicked into overdrive. Four teams share first place in the Big 12 and nine teams – more than half the league! — are technically still in contention for the conference championship.

This weekend and next are significant for the Big 12, not only because of the chaotic race for the conference title, but also because of the prospect of the College Football Playoff. If the playoffs began today – based on this week’s rankings – Oregon, Texas, Miami and Boise State would receive the byes reserved for the four highest-seeded conference champions, and the Big 12 champion would be ranked as the 12th seed boarding, i.e. a first round away game.

Having four teams in the top 25 should help the league, especially if No. 16 Arizona State or No. 18 Iowa State win the conference title. But it’s worth keeping an eye on the race for the bye.

Big 12 title race and tiebreaker scenarios

What needs to happen for your team to advance to the Big 12 Championship Game? This is what the league said on Sunday:

• If two teams are tied 7-2, those teams advance to the title game.

• If all four teams are tied at the end of the week, Arizona State and Iowa State advance to the title game.

• If Arizona State, BYU and Iowa State win and Colorado loses, the title game will be Arizona State vs. Iowa State.

• If BYU, Colorado and Iowa State win and Arizona State loses, the title game will be BYU-Iowa State.

• If Arizona State, BYU and Colorado win and Iowa State loses, the title game will be Arizona State vs. BYU.

Still with us?

Now if Arizona State, Colorado and Iowa State win and BYU loses, things will go wrong. In this scenario…

• If West Virginia beats Texas Tech, it will be Arizona State and Iowa State in the title game.

• If Texas Tech beats West Virginia, Baylor beats Kansas and Cincinnati beats TCU, then it’s Colorado vs. Iowa State. Otherwise it’s Colorado vs. Arizona State.

We know you are confused.

For Baylor, Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech or West Virginia to have a chance, they must win and three of the top four teams (Arizona State, BYU, Colorado, Iowa State) lose. The Big 12 hasn’t shared permutations for each of the 5-3 teams, and we can only imagine that because it’s more math than any of us can handle.

Game previews

Now that we’ve sorted that mess out, let’s take a look at this weekend’s games.

(All points spreads come from BetMGM; click here for live odds. All kick-off times are Easter and Saturday unless otherwise noted.)

Title game stakes

No. 16 Arizona State (9-2, 6-2 Big 12) at Arizona (4-7, 2-6), 3:30 p.m., Fox

There’s a lot at stake in the Territorial Cup this weekend, as the Big 12’s best playoff chances now lie with the Sun Devils.

It is remarkable that they are in this position. When Kenny Dillingham arrived, the program was in shambles after a chaotic end to the Herm Edwards era. Arizona State suffered a bowl ban last year, went 3-9 in the Pac-12 swansong and was picked to finish at the bottom of the Big 12 in July. But with renewed energy and smart roster management, here are the Sun Devils, who can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title games with a win (or several other scenarios).

Arizona is on the opposite path. The Wildcats should be contenders in their first year in the Big 12 after going 10-3 and finishing in the top 15 last season. But under new coach Brent Brennan they have not yet found solid footing. Five of their seven losses were by double digits. Their wins came against Houston, Utah, New Mexico and Northern Arizona.

It’s a tall order for the Wildcats, but anything is possible in a rivalry. The margin was therefore single-digit points.

Line: Arizona State -9

No. 24 Kansas State (8-3, 5-3) and No. 18 Iowa State (9-2, 6-2), 7:30 p.m., Fox

The Farmageddon rivalry is one of the oldest in college football and the longest-running FBS matchup that will never be broken – at least until 2027, when the unbroken streak is scheduled to end. That said, this would be a remarkable matchup even without everything at stake this Saturday in Ames, Iowa. And there is a lot at stake.

Game time set.

⏰ 6:30 p.m. CT
📍 Jack Trice Stadium
📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/Zb3Hc1QIQW

— K-State Football (@KStateFB) November 24, 2024

The Cyclones are in a solid position to clinch the Big 12 Championship with a win after pulling off a thrilling win over Utah last Saturday. K-State is technically still alive and can sneak into the title game with an upset and continued league-wide chaos. Or the Wildcats could simply play spoilsport and seek revenge for Iowa State University’s “Snowmageddon” win in Manhattan in 2023. (Note: Forecasts call for kickoff temperatures around 20 degrees.)

After a streak of 10 straight wins for Kansas State from 2008 to 2017, Iowa State has won four of the last six meetings. Another would likely secure a spot in the title game, in arguably the most important home game in Iowa State football history. The Cyclones last won a conference championship in 1912 as a member of the Missouri Valley Intercollegiate Athletic Association, a predecessor of the Big Eight.

Line: Iowa State -2.5

Houston (4-7, 3-5) at No. 19 BYU (9-2, 6-2), 10:15 p.m., ESPN

It’s Cougars vs. Cougars!

The chaos of the Big 12 spares no one, and BYU learned that the hard way over the last two weeks. After being the star of the league and moving up to No. 6 in the playoff rankings, the Cougars fell out of the top 15 due to consecutive losses and needed help getting into the Big 12 title game.

After a fumble against Kansas, BYU fell flat against Arizona State. It pretty much doomed the Cougars. Although they crawled out of a 21-3 halftime gap, they couldn’t quite come back, and a late interception by Jake Retzlaff sealed their fate. It’s a must-win for BYU to keep its conference title hopes alive.

Houston has its own problems: It just fired its offensive coordinator after having the worst offense in the FBS this season. Yes, Houston’s 13.6 points per game is actually lower than 0-12 Kent State’s (13.9). Quarterbacks coach Shawn Bell will call Saturday’s games, and Willie Fritz will have plenty of time to decide on a future OC since Houston won’t be bowling.

Line: BYU-12.5

Oklahoma State (3-8, 0-8) at No. 25 Colorado (8-3, 6-2), Friday at noon, ABC

The Buffs can still reach the Big 12 title game if they win and lose by two of the other top four teams — or, oddly enough, losses by BYU and West Virginia (tiebreaker, baby!). That means the TV executive’s dream scenario of getting Coach Prime, Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter into the playoffs is still alive.

Regardless of how the horse race for the title plays out, and despite a disappointing loss to Kansas last week, it has been a remarkably entertaining and encouraging season in Boulder, with a possible Heisman Trophy still to come. The same optimism can’t be applied to an Oklahoma State team trying to avoid a winless Big 12 record in what was undoubtedly the most disappointing of Mike Gundy’s 20 seasons at the helm of the Pokes. A Black Friday surprise won’t change that reality, but it will at least prevent goosebumps in the conference’s win column.

Another reason it’s worth tuning in: Deion claims that Shedeur and Hunter will play in a bowl game, but in the event Colorado doesn’t make it to the Big 12 Championship and those two decide to play out of one Bowl, this would be her last game with the Buffalo.

Line: Colorado -16.5

Mathematically alive

Kansas (5-6, 4-4) at Baylor (7-4, 5-3), Noon, ESPN2

In the spirit of Thanksgiving, Baylor coach Dave Aranda shared what he enjoys about the holiday, and he sounds like all of us: watching football on the couch in a food coma and reaching for the dessert tray early.

Baylor head coach Dave Aranda talked a little today about his favorite things to do on Thanksgiving.

Same, Dave. Same. pic.twitter.com/mTF8aC0gjp

— Zach Smith (@ByZachSmith) November 25, 2024

Maybe now that he’s no longer in the hot seat, Aranda will return to his old habit of telling stories.

As you prepare the last remnants of your Thursday for that early Saturday start, you’ll be treated to two strong teams. Baylor has won five straight, and Kansas has become the grim reaper for Big 12 playoff contenders, consecutively defeating Iowa State, BYU and Colorado to compete for bowl eligibility.

Line: Kansas -1.5

West Virginia (6-5, 5-3) at Texas Tech (7-4, 5-3), noon, FS1

A win for either program would improve spirits, which have been up and down for both schools this season. Back-to-back 6-3 finishes in Big 12 play would be a solid step for Neal Brown and the Mountaineers. If Tech wins, it will be the first time since 2009 that the Red Raiders finish the regular season with eight wins and a third straight season with a winning conference record, something not achieved since the Spike Dykes era.

Line: Texas Tech -3.5

TCU (7-4, 5-3) at Cincinnati (5-6, 3-5), 6 p.m., ESPN+

According to the Big 12, nine teams are still in contention for the conference title. While we’re hard-pressed to think of a scenario in which TCU could intervene, we’re taking their word for it! The Horned Frogs have turned around a potentially disastrous season, winning four of their last five. An 8:4 result would be respectable. Cincinnati is fighting to end a four-game losing streak and achieve bowl eligibility.

Line: TCU -3.5

All other

Utah (4-7, 1-7) at UCF (4-7, 2-6), Friday, 8 p.m., Fox

Retirement Watch seems to be the biggest bet in this game. Neither team can reach bowl eligibility, but both head coaches have been mentioned in the retirement rumor mill. UCF’s Gus Malzahn dismissed those rumors pretty forcefully after last week’s loss to West Virginia, telling reporters: “I don’t know where that came from. I’m not retiring.” Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, who finished his 20th season at the helm of the Utes, was less definitive, saying this week he would “evaluate after the season ends.”

Line: UCF -9.5

(Photo by Xavier Guillory: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)