Blake Snell and the Dodgers are a perfect match

Blake Snell and the Dodgers are a perfect match

As of last night, one of the best MLB free agents is off the market. The Los Angeles Dodgers have agreed to a five-year, $182 million contract with starting left tackle Blake Snell.

Snell won the Cy Young Award in 2018 with the Tampa Bay Rays and again in 2023 with the San Diego Padres. Despite being named the National League’s best pitcher, he had a difficult time in free agency a year ago. He had to wait until March 19 to find a new home and agreed to a one-year deal with the San Francisco Giants after declining his payment option this offseason.

In 20 starts last year, he posted a 3.12 ERA over 104 innings. Over his career, he has held opposing batters to a .208 batting average and is currently the MLB’s all-time leader with 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings (minimum 1,000 innings pitched).

Snell turns 32 next week, so the contract covers his seasons from ages 32 to 36. The contract is expected to provide for significant deferrals in the region of $60 million, so the value of the deal for luxury tax calculations will be in the region of $160 million to $165 million. That makes a difference for the Dodgers, who will undoubtedly exceed the equalization tax threshold for the fifth consecutive year, forcing them to pay the highest penalties for overruns.

Snell and the Dodgers are an ideal fit given their strengths and weaknesses. While he is an excellent pitcher on the mound, he doesn’t go deep into games and rarely reaches high innings. In his 211 games played, he averaged just 5.2 innings, all as a starter. He has only exceeded 130 innings twice in his career, winning the Cy Young both times. He has only made five starts that lasted longer than seven innings, most notably his no-hitter on August 2, which is also his only complete game.

The Dodgers value quality over quantity and durability in their starting pitchers. At the start of the 2024 season, it seemed like they had more than a dozen opportunities to compete for five rotation spots, but in Game 4 of the World Series they were forced into a bullpen game – the only game of the series they lost. Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone were their only two pitchers to surpass 90 innings in the regular season last year.

Right now, it looks like the Dodgers will use a six-man rotation with Snell, Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and two other pitchers. Ohtani missed all of last year on the mound as he recovered from Tommy John surgery – he won the MVP as a designated hitter anyway – and he was used to a six-man rotation when he pitched for the Los Angeles Angels . Yamamoto, who signed with the Dodgers of Japan last year, has always pitched with at least five days rest.

For now, there are several pitchers in the mix for the final two rotation spots. These include Ben Casparius, Tony Gonsolin, Michael Grove, Landon Knack, Dustin May and Bobby Miller. However, the club likely isn’t done adding pitching just yet. They are considered favorites to sign Roki Sasaki from Japan and will most likely bring back Clayton Kershaw as well.

Two former Dodgers starters — Walker Buehler and Jack Flaherty — almost certainly won’t return to Los Angeles now. With a pitcher of Snell’s caliber on the roster, the Dodgers will make that tradeoff.

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