Blake Snell Dodgers deal impacts free agent pitching

Blake Snell Dodgers deal impacts free agent pitching

A year ago, Snell’s free agency stretched deep into the winter before he signed a two-year, $62 million deal with the Giants on March 19. A few weeks ago, the second-year, two-time Cy Young Award winner opted out of that contract to test free agency again, a decision that paid off handsomely late Tuesday night.

Snell agreed to a five-year, $182 million contract with the Dodgers and became World Series champions with their first nine-figure contract of the offseason. Forget about closing a deal before Christmas; Snell can now sit back and relax on Thanksgiving knowing his future is resolved through the end of 2029.

“The rich are getting richer,” said one National League executive. “He’s a stud when he’s on the field. His only question is whether he can stay healthy – and five years is a long time. But in the Dodgers’ situation, there’s very little risk there.”

Los Angeles’ rotation now includes Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, while reigning NL Most Valuable Player Shohei Ohtani will likely join that group sometime early next season once he is cleared to pitch.

The impact of signing Snell on the Dodgers is obvious. But what does this mean for the rest of the free agent pitching market?

Yankees and Sox set for southpaw showdown?

According to sources, the Yankees, Red Sox and Orioles were already in the mix before Snell’s decision to sign with the Dodgers, leaving the three American League East clubs to continue their search for a pitcher.

If one of those clubs signs Fried, the other could potentially enter the trade market, where White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet is likely to be had at the right price. If both teams waive Fried, the White Sox could be in charge, as Crochet is a step above the rest of the left-handed starters on the free agent market (Sean Manaea, Matthew Boyd, Andrew Heaney, José Quintana).

“Totally different level,” one NL executive said of Fried and Crochet. “Those who miss out on Fried may have no choice if they desperately want to add a powerhouse left-handed starter.”

The Orioles are facing the possible loss of star player Corbin Burnes, who is considered the best free-agent starter available. Given Snell’s contract – which will ultimately be worth between $160 million and $165 million today, including deferrals – there is no reason to believe that Burnes’ deal will not be worth more than $200 million.

Burnes turned 30 last month, while Snell turns 32 next week. The Giants, who now need to replace Snell in their rotation, are believed to have strong interest in Burnes.

“Burnes is definitely getting more years,” one NL executive said. “I’m not sure the AAV is really different, but the extra years should make it a much larger number.”

Regardless of Baltimore’s right-left preference, the Orioles could enter the Fried sweepstakes or pursue other weapons like Jack Flaherty, Nathan Eovaldi or Walker Buehler. Baltimore could also try to pry Crochet away from the White Sox, and given the depth of the Orioles’ minor league system, they could be considered the favorite to sign Crochet if they decide that’s the direction they want to go .

“This is definitely the team to watch,” one NL executive said of the Orioles.

Perhaps the most surprising aspect of the Snell deal was its timing. The struggles he had leading up to his mid-March signing last year likely had an impact on Snell’s desire to get a deal done quickly, but we’ve already seen several free agent deals get done.

The Angels were busy, signing Yusei Kikuchi (three years, $63 million), Travis d’Arnaud (two years, $12 million), Kevin Newman (one year, $2.8 million) and Kyle Hendricks (one year, $2.5 million). The Royals signed Michael Wacha to a new contract (three years, $51 million) before even having to submit a qualifying offer. More than a half-dozen other players have already signed free-agent contracts in major leagues, with Snell’s contract being the first nine-figure deal of the offseason.

Last winter, Aaron Nola re-signed with the Phillies for $172 million on Nov. 19, while the other three nine-figure free agent deals of the offseason — Ohtani, Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee — all came in December. But a number of free agents had to wait until the new year, most notably Snell, Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger and Jordan Montgomery, who all signed in late February or March.

Could this offseason be different? Will the Hot Stove return to low levels after the Snell deal, or are we in for an eventful two weeks before the Winter Meetings, which begin December 9 in Dallas?

“I would imagine everything is waiting for (Juan) Soto,” one NL executive said. “Snell could be the outlier because I imagine he (Agent Scott Boras) said they need to do it quickly this time.”

The Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Dodgers have all met with Soto and are believed to have made initial offers, raising expectations that he will make his decision at some point in the Winter Meetings. Once that domino falls, some top free agents could begin signing, as clubs missing out on Soto will be forced to look elsewhere to improve their respective rosters.

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