The Boca Raton Bowl is the quintessential bowl season, with James Madison facing Western Kentucky as a seven-point favorite.

News about transfers and weather have shifted betting odds in both directions, which has become the nature of things in recent years.

The over/under has slowly dropped from 53 to 51.5 and I completely agree with the line movement and play the under. The only concern is that lower-tier bowl games often feature aggressive fourth-down play calling and similar reckless decisions. However, all variables point to us heading towards a low-scoring affair.

James Madison vs Western Kentucky odds

James Madison vs Western Kentucky Prediction

5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Initially, both starting quarterbacks entered the transfer portal. Second, none of these passing offenses are particularly impressive, even if they had their starting signal-callers. And thirdly, wind and rain should hinder the passing game.

James Madison entered the game as a seven-point favorite and the odds were at 9.5 when the betting market learned that Hilltoppers starting quarterback Caden Veltkamp was entering the transfer portal. However, the Dukes then officially lost their starter to injury, causing the odds to shift to 6.5.

After that we experienced a bizarre turn of events. Veltkamp announced that he will participate in the bowl game even if he remains in the portal. This seems strange to me and I would be surprised if he played the whole game. The market essentially agrees as this announcement did not change the market. A very sharp game at a sports betting provider caused the market to rise from 6.5 to seven points.

“The Dukes and their 30th-ranked rushing offense with 190 yards per contest should be pleased with a Western Kentucky run defense that is giving up 221 per game and is near the bottom of the FBS,” pro sports bettor Paul Bovi told Only Players . “James Madison will clearly be motivated having never won a bowl game since moving from the FCS in 2022. Coach Bob Chesney will be in his first bowl game in 24 years as coach.”

Betting on college football?

Chesney replaced Curt Cignetti, who transferred to Indiana last offseason, and brought several players with him in the transfer portal. However, it is WKU that has the transfer problem this year with 10 starters and several reserves, but we are not sure who will miss this game.

I often like to fade teams that lost their conference championship game and will do so here by betting against the Hilltoppers. But my main game is the under.

PICK: Under 51.5 (-115, BetMGM)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor and currently Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has more than two decades of betting experience, including eleven years as an anchor, columnist and betting analyst at ESPN. He is also the rare figure who has documented success – 14th place in the 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37,000), two top-10 finishes in the 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58,000 ) and also made headlines at the 2021 NFL Draft with a win of $297,000.