The Detroit Lions host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night and there is a lot on the line. The NFC North, number one in the NFC playoffs and therefore home advantage in the playoffs, is at stake. As those of you who have subscribed to the POD Direct newsletter already know, it is the winningest regular season game between two teams in NFL history, with a total of 28 wins. There’s a lot at stake and there’s certainly a lot of firepower on display.

Bold Prediction of the Week: Jared Goff beats Vikings DC Brian Flores with 400-yard throws

Brian Flores is one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL. Since he arrived in Minnesota nearly two seasons ago, the discourse surrounding his encounters with the Lions has always been about how he can get inside Jared Goff’s head. After all, Flores has managed to do this time and time again against some of the best quarterbacks in the league.

Three matchups later, Flores had no such luck against the Lions quarterback. Goff is 3-0 against Brian Flores and has played some of his most efficient football in those wins.

As the two enter the fourth duel, we’ll wait and see what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object. The Vikings enter Week 18 with the top-rated DVOA pass defense, while Jared Goff has undeniably had the best season of his career, both on paper and on film. He plays MVP-level football.

In the last three meetings between these teams, Goff played error-free football, but has not disappeared from the stat sheet. He has only surpassed the 300-yard passing mark once, in the Lions’ 30-20 win to end the 2023 regular season. However, Goff is playing at a new level of football, and the last few weeks suggest that he is The finale of the regular season might be the breakthrough.

Goff has rushed for over 300 yards in each of his last three games, against three very respectable defenses in the Bills, Bears and 49ers. The highlight of that stretch was Goff’s 494-yard performance against the Bills, which showed that if he has to go into a shootout, he can do it. He’ll look to repeat that against the Vikings while the Lions’ defense continues to overcome some injury vulnerabilities.

Goff should have the support for that too. While the Lions’ offense has struggled throughout the season, they had their best game in recent memory on Monday night against the 49ers. This was highlighted by the return of left-back Graham Glasgow from injury, and Glasgow looked sharp and refreshed as the interior offensive line created a flawless pocket for Goff to slip into throughout the night.

They’ll try to do the same thing Sunday night against the Vikings’ Jonathan Greenard-led pass-rush unit. Even if they don’t manage to do that, Goff has shown a much improved ability to move laterally and throw off the run in the second half of the season, something we didn’t see much of the first time these two teams met this year.

The Lions could be forced to forfeit if Goff can continue to play the clean football we’ve seen from him lately. The Vikings defense has the third-best run defense according to DVOA, and with David Montgomery out of the lineup, it remains to be seen how well Jahmyr Gibbs can combine speed with brute force against Minnesota’s front seven. Gibbs struggled in short-yardage against the Bears, but looked good in the same situation against the 49ers. If he struggles again, the Lions could focus more on the passing game.

It’s a perfect storm for a shootout and an even more perfect storm for another MVP-level performance from Jared Goff. It remains to be seen whether he can continue his winning streak against the Vikings. But if the Lions defense continues to play like it has in recent weeks, the Lions passing offense will have no choice but to become aggressive. I’m betting on another outstanding performance from Goff when it matters most, this time breaking the 400-yard passing barrier against the Vikings.