Bryce Mitchell vs Kron Gracie odds, tips and predictions

Nepotism has given Kron Gracie more opportunities in MMA than he probably deserves, and Bryce Mitchell will get a win with relative ease.

December 7, 2024 • 10:00 am ET

• 4 min reading

Photo by – Imagn Images.

Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie is a featherweight bout between two grappling and submission specialists and is one of the main attractions on the UFC 310 card.

My predictions between Mitchell and Gracie are that this fight will go the distance and “Thug Nasty” will get his arm raised.

Mitchell vs Gracie prediction and selection

Combat analysis

I have to give the UFC credit for showing respect to the legends of the game. Their commitment to honoring the Gracie family and their contributions to MMA are great, but they did their best to make Kron Gracie a star.

Simply put, Kron is the Bronny James of the Gracie family, having broken into the big leagues largely on his name and showing that he still has a lot of work to do now that he’s here. Unless Bryce Mitchell decides to treat this as a fight, Mitchell will lose this fight.

Mitchell fought his way up the featherweight division until Ilia Topuria put him in an arm triangle at UFC 282. He also suffered a scary first-round knockout loss to Josh Emmett at UFC 296 last December.

Outside the octagon, Mitchell has largely garnered more attention with his unhinged beliefs and conspiracy theories, but he remains an aggressive wrestler who holds his ground and makes it very difficult for opponents to shake him off.

Maybe Mitchell isn’t as focused, or at least that’s the perception, making him the most credible opponent for Gracie to beat if the fight is limited to grappling and submissions.

Even though Mitchell approaches this fight like any other in his career, Gracie lacks the confidence or determination to do much more than just go through the motions.

His shot is abysmal, even after he took almost five years away from competing to improve his skills following a loss to Cub Swanson, only to be dominated by Charles Jourdain upon his return.

The complexities of modern MMA leave little room for purists like the Gracie family to compete at the highest level, especially for someone who doesn’t put in the work necessary.

Mitchell will likely overtake Gracie as his aggressive wrestling will immediately put him in a corner. Even though Gracie manages to fend off some takedowns and show good ground defense, Mitchell’s striking power is far superior to anything we’ve seen from Gracie.

Keep in mind that Gracie absorbs almost seven strokes per minute and only has a 25% success rate. Gracie’s best chance is to finish on top in a scramble and secure an assist, but he’s clearly outnumbered here.

This won’t be a good night for the Gracie clan. Expect Mitchell to dominate Gracie.

Best best analysis

Mitchell is not a finisher and Gracie will be able to defend herself on the ground in the moments when the fight comes.

I don’t see much opportunity for Gracie to pull off a significant upset, and he’ll likely be smothered on the mat by Mitchell since he has little to offer in the exchanges.