No one knows for sure what caused the crash of Jeju Air Flight 2216, which killed all but two of its 181 passengers and crew. As darkness fell at South Korea’s Muan International Airport and officials fielded questions from distraught relatives of the dead, the most likely explanation was that the plane had been hit by one or more birds, setting off a series of events that prevented the pilot from flying to deploy the aircraft landing gear.

Aviation officials focused on bird strikes – and to a lesser extent weather – as the most likely cause, although some experts said the relatively common phenomenon would not have been enough to cause catastrophic landing gear failure.

The control tower in Muan reportedly issued a bird strike warning shortly before the pilot’s distress call.

“All the staff said they had never seen so many birds before. They suddenly flew in from outside the airport,” an anonymous airport official told South Korean news site OhmyNews.

More will be known once officials examine flight data obtained from the wreckage of the Boeing 737-800, but aviation experts said a bird strike alone likely would not have had the impact needed to disable the landing gear.

“A bird strike is not uncommon, landing gear problems are not uncommon,” said Geoffrey Thomas, editor of Airline News. “Bird strikes are far more common, but they typically do not alone result in the loss of an aircraft.”

Other experts shared Thomas’ skepticism. “I have never seen a bird strike prevent the landing gear from extending,” said Geoffrey Dell, an Australian aviation safety expert. Trevor Jensen, an Australian aviation consultant, said fire and rescue services would normally be prepared for a belly landing, “so this appears to be unplanned.”

Marco Chan, lecturer in aviation operations at Buckinghamshire New University in England, said: “Bird strikes pose a significant risk to aircraft and the danger depends on factors such as the size of the bird, the speed of the aircraft, the location of the attack and the… .” Engine design.”

Birds weighing up to 1 kg “rarely cause catastrophic failures, but can damage engine blades or other critical parts,” Chan said, adding that the Boeing 737-800, equipped with CFM International’s CFM56-7B26 engines, was for scenarios designed to deal with many bird strikes.

Birds weighing more than 3kg, such as geese or swans, posed the greatest risk, particularly if taken into an engine, he said. “Even smaller birds can cause significant problems at high speeds, particularly if they hit multiple systems. While engines and airframes undergo extensive testing to address these risks, rare and extreme scenarios remain a challenge to aviation safety.”

Dell said if a flock of birds had been sucked into the engines, it would not have immediately shut down the engines, giving the pilots time to react.

Footage from Sunday’s crash shows the plane traveling at high speed when it hit the tarmac. It didn’t appear to slow as it sped down the runway and over a buffer zone just outside the perimeter wall.

In a typical belly landing, Thomas said, “you’re going to land on your engines and have a bumpy ride.” You land with minimal fuel, have fire engines covering the runway with foam, and you land at the very end of the runway, and Usually the situation ends up being okay.”

Bird strikes typically occur during landing and takeoff and are one of the most common threats to aircraft. A recent study by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration and the U.S. Department of Agriculture found that 296,613 “wildlife attacks” were reported worldwide between 1990 and 2023, 98. 3% of them in the US and mostly birds.

The study found that the number of incidents had increased almost every year. Over a 33-year period, 83 bird strikes resulted in the destruction of an aircraft, the report said. Approximately 70% of incidents occurred at or below 500 feet above the ground, while events above 500 feet were more likely to cause damage.

The location of Muan International Airport, where Sunday’s crash occurred, could prove significant. It is close to three major bird sanctuaries that serve as wintering grounds for migratory birds. A survey this month by South Korea’s National Institute of Ecology found that nearly 19,000 migratory birds reside in these protected areas.

According to data from the Korea Airports Corporation submitted to Parliament, the airport recorded the highest bird strike rate among South Korea’s 14 regional airports. Ten incidents were reported between 2019 and August this year.

A 2020 environmental impact assessment for the airport’s planned runway expansion specifically warned of the risks, noting that “extensive farmland and mudflats exist in the outer airport area” and that the nearby area is “particularly rich in bird food sources and roosting areas.” ” be.

According to Ministry of Transport regulations, airports with one runway must employ four dedicated bird control staff, or two staff for airports with fewer than 5,000 flights per year, such as Muan.

Statewide, bird strike incidents have increased, from 108 in 2019 to 152 last year. Some suspect the increase is linked to climate change, as migratory birds become permanent residents and there are shifts in the timing and species of birds showing up at airports.

Airports are deploying various countermeasures, including acoustic deterrence and surveillance systems, and some are exploring the use of AI and radar technology to track bird movements.