We are in the home stretch of the Champions League league phase – the five British teams want to deliver different performances in the new format.

Opinions are divided over the controversial new Swiss-style system, as each individual team is represented in a large 36 league team and faces eight different opponents over the course of the season.

This doesn’t seem to bother Liverpool, having won each of their first six league games so far without conceding a goal. With 18 points they are all but assured of a place in the top eight, which will secure them a place in the last 16.

But can Arne Slot now afford to rotate his team? No, not until the top spot is secured. That’s because there’s an incentive to keep winning as every single place counts in this new Champions League format.

Read on below to see all the permutations for the rest of the Champions League format…

Who will qualify from the league phase?

To automatically qualify for the round of 16 in March, teams must finish in the top eight.

Places nine to 24 take part in a home-and-away play-off round in February, with the winners taking the other eight places in the round of 16.

Whoever takes places nine to 16 is seeded for the play-offs and has to play the second leg at home. Places 17 to 24 will not be seeded, so the first leg will be played at home.

Teams finishing anywhere between 25th and 36th will be eliminated from this season’s competition and will not have access to the Europa League.

Ok, but if we’re in the top eight, does it matter whether I come first or eighth?

Yes, it does. The way the Champions League league stage works is that the final league position gives you a specific path – and specific opponents – in the knockout round draw.

The graphic below shows the tournament tree for the rest of the competition. For the first time ever, the knockout rounds will be decided in the league phase – without separate draws for the round of 16, quarter-finals and beyond.

For example, the teams that finish first or second in the league stage will face a team that finishes 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th.

Compare that to the team that finishes seventh or eighth, which could play a team that finishes 23rd or 24th – but also takes the risk of playing the team that finishes ninth or 10th – what could be a big European team.

The advantage for the team that finishes first or second is that they are guaranteed to play with a team in the “midfield” of the final Champions League table. Whoever ends up further down risks playing against the better team.

Is it really an advantage to finish at the top?

Not necessarily. Especially this season.

The early struggles of teams such as Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain mean that a top European team could end up in the ‘mid-table’ of the Champions League table – facing one of the best performing teams.

Liverpool currently sit at the top of the league stage table – but the teams who started this gameweek in 15th, 16th, 17th and 18th place are Atletico Madrid, AC Milan, Manchester City and PSV Eindhoven.

So if teams don’t perform as well as expected in the league stage, there could be some blockbuster round of 16 knockouts, depriving them of the advantage of finishing in the highest spots.

Is there a difference between ninth and 24th place?

Again: yes. A big one. And it has everything to do with the playoffs.

The new Champions League format means that the team that finishes ninth will face the team in 24th place in the play-off round. The tenth plays the 23rd, the 11th plays the 22nd, and so on.

So if you narrowly miss out on a place in the top eight, the blow will be softened by playing against the worst-performing teams that qualified in the league stage. So the higher you score, the “easier” the game becomes.

But here too: If teams like Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain have problems in the league phase, it could be that top teams meet in the play-off rounds.

How many points do you need to guarantee a place in the top eight?

The Opta supercomputer believes 16 points would almost certainly be enough to get into the top eight, which would then guarantee you a place in the last 16 in March. Liverpool have surpassed that record, winning all six games so far, while Aston Villa are just one win away from that checkpoint.

The data also suggests that 15 points could be enough to sneak into eighth place, with that score being enough in 73 percent of Opta’s 50,000 simulations of the league stage.

Meanwhile, 14 points might not be enough for a place in the top eight.

How many points do you need to guarantee a top 24 finish?

Opta believes finishing in the top 24 will guarantee you at least a place in the play-offs 10 points will almost certainly guarantee you a place in this round.

Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa have already achieved this feat Celtic and Manchester City are just one win away from that total.

However, nine points could also be enough for 24th place, although this point score was sufficient in 69 percent of the simulations. Celtic currently have nine points, while City are just one point away.

However, with only eight points there is a risk of elimination, although this number of points was only sufficient in 16 percent of the simulations.

Opta predictions: Arsenal and Liverpool in top eight | Villa get Real Madrid

The Opta supercomputer says arsenal And Liverpool are expected to finish in the top eight, with Arne Slot’s side remaining at the top and the Gunners in third place.

In its current form, Manchester City And Celtic are expected to finish in 15th and 18th place – which would mean they would meet in the play-off round in February.

There would be an exciting draw for 13th place Aston Villawho would get real Madrid – expected to finish in 21st place – in the play-offs, with the first leg at the Santiago Bernabeu.

The supercomputer also says Paris Saint Germain are on track to finish 26th – and would therefore be eliminated from all European competitions at the first hurdle.

Who are the supercomputers’ Champions League favorites?

Liverpool are currently favorites to win the Champions League, with Slot’s side being given a 20 per cent chance of winning the trophy in Munich after an excellent start to the season.

arsenal are third favorites with 13.2 percent – ​​just ahead of Pep Guardiola Man City – fourth favorite with 9.3 percent.

Inter Milan is second favorite with 15.8 percent – ​​with Atalanta, Barcelona, ​​​​Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen And Sporting Lisbon among the top ten.

Aston Villa have a 0.6 percent chance of winning the entire tournament, which is twice as likely as Celtic to 0.3 percent.

When will the knockout rounds of the 2024/25 Champions League take place?

• Play-offs of the knockout round: 11./12. February and 18/19. February 2025
• Round of 16: 4th/5th March and 11th/12th March 2025
• Quarterfinals: 8th/9th April and 15th/16th April 2025
• Semi-finals: 29th/30th April and 6th/7th May 2025
• Final: May 31, 2025

Where will the Champions League final take place in 2025?

The 2024/25 UEFA Champions League season will take place on May 31, 2025 in Munich at the Allianz Arena.