We’ve reached the point of the season where the Champions League group stage ends with a major foul… oh no, we haven’t. This is the 2024/25 season, so the sixth matchday is only the 75 percent point of the league phase, and there are two more rounds of games in January.

But that doesn’t mean there isn’t a lot to do this week. Liverpool face Girona away in their first kick-off of the season on Tuesday, while another clash between Borussia Dortmund and Barcelona takes place on Wednesday, just before the summit. And Real Madrid and Manchester City will try to break out of their crisis with difficult trips to Italy (against Atalanta and Juventus respectively).

With the help of The athletic oneIn the Champions League predictions powered by Opta, here are the key fixtures that could determine movement in the table and future developments this week. Click the link below for more information.

---

Girona vs Liverpool – Tuesday, 5:45pm GMT/12:45pm EST

Liverpool have not lost a point after five games and most recently won 2-0 against Real Madrid. Even a draw on Tuesday would at least secure Arne Slot’s men a place in the knockout playoffs, as they would be at least seven points clear of the 24th-place team with two games to go. That would just be the first step as our predictions suggest they have a 98% chance of finishing in the top eight and are the only team expected to score 20+ points in the first phase of the league.

Girona struggled in its first European season, picking up just one win from five games with narrow defeats to Paris Saint-Germain, Feyenoord and Sturm Graz. Milan and Arsenal are next in line, meaning their chances of being eliminated in the league phase are 95 percent.

---

Atalanta vs Real Madrid – Tuesday, 8pm GMT/3pm EST

Real Madrid’s injuries have made it difficult for them to build chemistry with Kylian Mbappe and led to inconsistencies. Their record from their last seven games in all competitions is: loss, win, win, loss, win, loss, win.

Madrid’s defeat at Liverpool has increased the risk of elimination in the league phase from five to seven percent, but the chances of reaching the knockout playoffs are still 91 percent, at least if Red Bull Salzburg at home and Brest away is coming afterwards. In fact, our forecast suggests Real Madrid are the most likely team to make it to the knockout playoffs – not the smooth promotion the defending champions would have hoped for, but at least a chance to re-establish themselves in 2025 form.

But this is a difficult matter. Atalanta have conceded just one goal in the Champions League, in a 6-1 win against Young Boys in Gameweek 5. They sit at the top of Serie A and beat Milan on Friday, extending their winning streak to nine games in all competitions. A win here – especially if Barcelona and Dortmund face each other – could see their top eight odds (currently at 58 percent) improve significantly.

---

Bayer Leverkusen vs Inter – Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. GMT/3:00 p.m. EST

Leverkusen and Inter have taken different approaches but are in similar situations. Xabi Alonso’s side have scored 11 times and conceded five goals, while Inter’s resolute defense means they are the only team yet to concede a goal in the competition this season, while on the other hand they have only scored seven goals.

Leverkusen’s chances of finishing in the top eight when they visit Atlético Madrid in January are 39 percent, so any points will be crucial here. Meanwhile, Inter took four points from their toughest games against Manchester City and Arsenal, making their entry into the league phase (away at Sparta Prague and at home in Monaco) comparatively easy. As things stand, according to our Opta predictions, Inter are narrow favorites to win the Champions League, ahead of Liverpool and Arsenal.

---

Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona – Wednesday, 8pm GMT/3pm EST

Barcelona enjoyed success against German opponents, beating Bayern Munich 4-1 at home on matchday three – just 24 hours after Dortmund conceded five second-half goals and lost 5-2 to Real Madrid after being 0-0 after 34 minutes. 2 had taken the lead.

But six weeks later the situation is different. Barcelona are facing their first defeat under Hansi Flick and have only won two wins in their last six games across all competitions. One of them was against Brest in their last Champions League game, which increased their chances of direct qualification for the round of 16 to a very good 76 percent.

Dortmund are still playing under Nuri Sahin but are unbeaten in their last four games, including a 1-1 draw against Bayern in the Bundesliga. In their last Champions League game they beat Dinamo Zagreb 3-0, meaning their chances of finishing in the top eight are an optimistic 75 percent.

Barcelona finishes the league phase with tricky games against Benfica (away) and Atalanta (home), so this game is likely to be even more exciting as Dortmund face Bologna (away) and Shakhtar Donetsk (home) in January.

---

Juventus vs Manchester City – Wednesday, 8pm GMT/3pm EST

For both teams, much of the focus was on their poor performance in the league. Juventus, who are yet to lose in Serie A, have drawn nine of their 15 league games and are sixth, while City have lost four of their 15 – already more than in the entire 2021-22 and 2023-24 title-winning seasons – and are fourth.

Wednesday’s game therefore represents an opportunity to generate momentum while getting the Champions League season on track. Both teams have eight points after five games, while Leverkusen, Arsenal and Monaco, who currently complete the top eight, have ten each.

Juventus and Man City play Club Brugge in their final two games of the league phase. The Italian team travel to Benfica for their final game, while Man City travel to PSG on matchday seven. That certainly means Juventus, whose chance of finishing in the top eight is nine per cent compared to City’s 15, has more to do in this game, particularly in front of their home crowd.

---

Around the league

• arsenal before a departure Monaco in a game that could see one of the two eliminated from the top eight by the end of Wednesday’s game. Arsenal have a 70 percent chance of qualifying directly for the round of 16, while Monaco only has a 15 percent chance. So the French probably need more points.
• Celtic have recovered admirably from the 7-1 defeat to Dortmund in the second game week, picking up five points from their last three games. A victory at Dinamo Zagrebwho are just one point behind them would give them a little boost Young boys next up.
• Defeat against Bavaria there are five left in game week PSG just outside the knockout places. Anything but a win at Red Bull Salzburg, who have also only won once, and the sound of the alarm bells already ringing borders on cacophony.

(Header photo: Oli Scarff/AFP via Getty Images)