We finally did it. Nearly 1,300 days after the announcement that “a subgroup of the College Football Playoff (CFP) Administrative Committee today submitted a proposal to change the current four-team format to a 12-team event,” and nearly 120 days after a breathless college Year 2024 Football season has begun, we have our 12 team playoffs and they start on Friday evening.

The first round of the CFP will take place in four historic locations: South Bend, Indiana; State College, Pennsylvania; Austin, Texas; and Columbus, Ohio. We have the proverbial Helmet Games (Texas vs. Clemson, Ohio State vs. Tennessee), we have a few big upstart stories (Indiana visits Notre Dame, SMU visits Penn State) and we’re expecting wintry weather at three of four sites.

Aside from the fact that the quarterfinals will be played at neutral venues rather than home stadiums, that’s pretty much everything we hoped for. Let’s take a look at the first four games of this new playoff era.

Jump to a section:
Biggest games for each team
Indiana-Notre Dame
SMU-Penn State
Clemson Texas
Tennessee-Ohio State

Weather forecasts

A big problem with home games in December: They take place in December! And with Midwest/Northeast teams hosting three of four games, things get a little chilly.

The forecasts:

• South Bend: 29 degrees at kick-off, it was snowing earlier in the day

• State university: 27 degrees and partly cloudy at kickoff

• Austin: 61 degrees and sunny at kickoff

• Columbus: 26 degrees and partly cloudy at kickoff

At the moment it doesn’t look like snow will be a factor this weekend, but it will be terribly cold in three out of four games.

Projections

A four-team playoff essentially added an extra game to the schedule. A 12-team playoff is a real thing tournament. Randomness and bracket-busting will play a role, especially in a season where the top teams aren’t separated by much (No. 1 and No. 8 in the SP+ rankings are currently separated by just 3.1 points). And before the first round, no one has more than a 20.4% chance of winning, according to SP+.