SMU or Alabama?

That’s the College Football Playoff committee’s big dilemma ahead of Sunday’s final rankings. The Mustangs battled back against Clemson and tied the game with less than 30 seconds left before losing 34-31 to the Tigers on a 56-yard field goal with no time left.

With the loss, SMU drops to 11-2 and the Mustangs are certain to drop from No. 8 in the rankings. But will they be eliminated from the playoffs?

Alabama passed Miami for the final spot in the preliminary playoff field on Tuesday despite having a 9-3 record to Miami’s 10-2 record. The Hurricanes have lost two of their last three games and ended the regular season with a loss at Syracuse.

Considering what happened less than a week ago, it’s easy to see how Alabama could escape a two-loss SMU from the same conference. But we’re not sure the committee wants to open this can of worms. Committee Chairman Warde Manuel left open the possibility of SMU falling below Alabama on Tuesday night, but also made it clear that it was far from a guarantee.

“If they get out if they lose, I’m not sure,” Manuel said. “What we will do is evaluate them based on their performance by watching the game and showing great respect to the teams that are playing. There are 18 teams playing this weekend and we will be watching them all and evaluating the results of those games and we will see how they move, if they move at all. As I mentioned in the interview on ESPN, TCU lost two years ago and remained ranked No. 3 this year, so things like that can happen. People can lose and maybe stay where they are. They can move like we have done in other years and take a big drop, or they can just go down a little. It just depends on the outcome of the game.”

We don’t think Clemson’s win was convincing enough to completely knock SMU out of the playoffs. Here’s our final prediction of what the playoff field will look like when it’s announced Sunday at noon ET on ESPN.

Byes in the first round

1. Oregon (13-0, Big Ten champion)

2. Georgia (11-2, SEC champions)

3. Boise State (12-1, Mountain West champions)

4. Arizona State (11-2, Big 12 champion)

These four teams seem pretty straightforward. Boise State started the weekend five spots ahead of Arizona State and beat UNLV by 14 in the MWC title game. Arizona State dominated Iowa State in the Big 12 title game and was two spots ahead of Clemson in the rankings entering Tuesday. Clemson didn’t do enough to earn a first-round bye, and Boise State should stay ahead of Arizona State.

First round matches

No. 12 SMU (11-2, overall) at No. 5 Texas (11-2, overall)

No. 11 Clemson (10-3, ACC champion) and No. 6 Penn State (11-2, overall)

No. 10 Indiana (11-1, overall) at No. 7 Notre Dame (11-1, overall)

No. 9 Tennessee (10-2, overall) and No. 8 Ohio State (10-2, overall)

This is where things get really, really interesting. We have SMU with the final spot in the playoff field ahead of Alabama and the Mustangs one spot behind Clemson due to Saturday night’s head-to-head loss. It would be strange if the committee had both Clemson and SMU in the field and the Mustangs were ahead of the Tigers.

However, we are not sure whether the results of the direct comparisons will also apply to other games in the first round. Texas and Penn State are suspended from playing first-round games following their losses in the conference title game on Saturday. And we believe the committee will ensure they stay ahead of Notre Dame, as both of those losses came by one point. Texas was No. 2 in the rankings as of Tuesday, ahead of No. 3 Penn State and No. 4 Notre Dame.

If the top four conference champions get byes, that would drop those three teams to 5-7 in the playoffs and leave Ohio State at No. 8. Yes, the Buckeyes beat Penn State in the regular season. But can the committee drop Penn State behind Ohio State without doing the same to Texas?

Placing Notre Dame at No. 7 behind Texas and Penn State also allows the committee to avoid a rematch or a game between teams from the same conference in a first-round game. Indiana appears locked in at No. 10 and could play the Fighting Irish instead of moving on to face Penn State or Ohio State again.