Will a three-loss team make the College Football Playoff?

Heading into conference championship weekend, there are two known options that could make this a reality.

Alabama and Clemson combined for 14 College Football Playoff appearances, 10 CFP championship game appearances and five national championships during the four-team era from 2014 to 2023. Schools dominated that 10-year period, and this repeated success forced discussion of a 12-team expansion because it was time to get some youth there.

Now at least one of those schools could enter the CFP as a three-loss team.

Clemson (9-3) has the direct path despite a 17-14 home loss to South Carolina. The Tigers reached the ACC Championship Game because Miami lost to Syracuse 42-38. Clemson will play SMU (11-1) in the ACC Championship game. By the way, Dabo Swinney is 8-1 in the ACC Championship game.

The more heated debate will center on Alabama (9-3), which won the Iron Bowl and sits atop the group of three-loss SEC teams that includes Ole Miss, South Carolina and Missouri, which are looking to get into the 12 are looking for – team field. Miami (10-2) has fewer losses, but the Hurricanes haven’t beaten a ranked team all season. The Crimson Tide defeated four ranked teams. Need we remind you what happened to Florida State last year?

There is always a difference in what the answer should be and what it will be. If Clemson wins, SMU could take a big lead and knock off the Crimson Tide. If the Tigers lose, we think the Tide will be there.

Each week, Sporting News breaks down the 12-team College Football Playoff, with first-round byes, first-round games and bubble teams. Here’s what it looks like heading into conference championship weekend:

Conscripted: Alabama

Dropped out: Miami

Projected byes for the first round of the College Football Playoff

No. 1 Oregon (12-0, Big Ten champion)

Oregon defeated Washington 49-21 to close out Big Ten play. Dillon Gabriel (16 of 23, 209 yards, 2 TDs) finished the regular season with 24 TDs and six interceptions, and Jordan James (15-99, 2 TDs) was effective in the running game. The Ducks face Penn State in the Big Ten championship game, and Oregon coach Dan Lanning has a chance to secure the No. 1 seed in the CFP.

No. 2 Texas (11-1, SEC champion)

Texas is in the SEC Championship Game after knocking off rival Texas A&M 17-7 in Rivalry Week. Quinn Ewers (17 of 28, 218 yards, TD, INT) played with a sprained ankle, and Quintrevion Wisner (33-186) had a career night against the Aggies. Texas would have made a compelling case for the No. 1 seed with a win against Georgia in the SEC championship game. The Bulldogs defeated the Longhorns 30-15 on Oct. 19, but the rematch should be closer.

3. SMU (11-1, ACC Champion)

It’s an interesting journey for the Mustangs this weekend, as they completed an undefeated season in ACC play with a 38-6 score against Cal. Kevin Jennings averaged 288 yards per game with nine touchdowns and two interceptions in November. SMU won its last two games by a combined score of 71-13. Translation? Defense is also underestimated. Would the Mustangs earn an at-large spot even if they lose to Clemson? This will be a hot topic this week.

No. 4 Boise State (11-1, Mountain West champions)

At least for now, the Broncos are ahead of the Big 12 champions for their fourth bye in the first round. Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty had 37 carries for 226 yards in a 34-18 win over Oregon State, raising his season totals to 2,288 yards and 28 touchdowns. The Broncos still have to stop the Big 12 champion, but the more immediate challenge is a matchup against UNLV (10-2) in the Mountain West Conference championship game. The Rebels could secure the automatic bid with a win. Boise State defeated UNLV 29-25 on Oct. 25.

Scheduled matchups in the first round of the College Football Playoff

A look at Sporting News’ predicted College Football Playoff first-round matchups ahead of conference championship weekend:

No. 12 Alabama (9-3, SEC overall) and No. 5 Penn State (11-1, Big Ten overall)

Alabama is back? Seriously? At this point, it’s either the Crimson Tide with three losses or Miami with two losses, and after the Hurricanes’ loss in Week 14, the recency bias could be coming to fruition. Alabama rebounded with a 28-14 win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl and Jalen Milroe passed for 256 yards, rushed for 104 yards and scored three touchdowns. Penn State has a chance to jump to No. 1 or 2 with a win in the Big Ten Championship Game, but a loss to Oregon could see the Nittany Lions forfeit with Ohio State. Penn State defeated Maryland 44-7 and James Franklin won its last Big Ten Championship appearance in 2016.

No. 11 Arizona State (10-2, Big 12 champion) and No. 6 Notre Dame (11-1, independent)

Notre Dame beat USC 49-35 and gets a home game – the best-case scenario for the Irish without the benefit of a conference championship game. Given the loss to Northern Illinois in Week 2, that works quite well. Quarterback Riley Leonard (17 of 22, 155 yards, 2 TDs, INT) added 50 rushing yards and a TD, and the tandem of Jadarian Price (12-111, TD) and Jeremiyah Love (13-99, TD) was dynamic . to. Arizona State secured its spot in the Big 12 Championship Game with a 49-7 win over Arizona, and the Sun Devils still have a chance to overtake Boise State for a first-round bye. Cam Skattebo (21-177, 3 touchdowns) now has 1,398 yards and 17 touchdowns.

No. 10 Indiana (11-1, Big Ten overall) at No. 7 Georgia (10-2, SEC overall)

This is where the Big Ten team needs to go to the SEC environment. Georgia can move up to second place with a win in the SEC championship game, and the 44-42 score in eight overtimes was a reminder that Bulldogs are an inconsistent product that still has national championship DNA if Carson Beck manages not to turn the ball over. The Hoosiers defeated Purdue 66-0, capping an 11-1 season under first-year coach Curt Cignetti, and Kurtis Rourke (23 of 31, 349 yards, 6 TDs) had his best game of the season. Could this be the surprising story that shapes the first round of the playoffs?

No. 9 Tennessee (10-2, SEC overall) and No. 8 Ohio State (10-2, Big Ten overall)

This is where the SEC school has to adapt to the Big Ten environment. This is where the Buckeyes will fall – at least for this week. The 13:10 defeat against Michigan in “The Game” represents a psychological hurdle, but a first-round home game in the new format is the consequence. This is not as drastic as in previous years, even with a four-man team structure. Tennessee defeated Vanderbilt 36-23. Nico Iamaleava (18 of 26, 257 yards, 4 TDs, INT) and running back Dylan Sampson (25-178) were the leaders. These teams have not played since the 1996 Citrus Bowl.

MORE: Michigan and Ohio State brawl after flag game

Projected College Football Playoff Bubble Teams

Miami (10-2, ACC)

After the loss to Syracuse, the Hurricanes could now be on the outside looking in. Miami blew a 21-0 first-half lead and failed to win despite a 349-yard, two-touchdown performance from Cam Ward. If they’re behind Alabama in Tuesday’s rankings, there’s no way to move up.

Iowa State (10-2, Big 12)

Iowa State defeated Kansas State 29-21 and still has a chance in the Big 12 if BYU beats Houston in late-night Big 12 play. That would give the Cyclones a chance in the Big 12 championship game — their second appearance under Matt Campbell. At this point, it’s a win-and-in situation.

Ole Miss (9-3, SEC)

Will the Rebels stay behind Alabama? Ole Miss defeated Mississippi State 26-14 in the Egg Bowl, and they are coming off a straight win over Georgia. The Rebels also have losses to Florida and Kentucky, and this loss to the Wildcats is an anchor in the final rankings.

South Carolina (9-3, SEC)

What about the Gamecocks? South Carolina has allowed 15.3 points per game during a six-game winning streak and beat rival Clemson 17-14 in Week 14. The problem is straight losses to Alabama and Ole Miss and a third loss to LSU. Alabama and Ole Miss are still ahead of the Gamecocks in the rankings. That probably won’t change.

Clemson (9-3, ACC)

The Tigers are ranked 16th-18th after the loss to South Carolina – their second loss to a non-conference SEC school. But Miami’s loss gave the Tigers a spot in the ACC Championship Game against Clemson. Yes, it doesn’t make any sense.