As Selection Day approaches, the College Football Playoff Committee must make difficult decisions, regardless of this weekend’s results. Alabama’s move against SMU if the Mustangs lose to Clemson was the main topic of conversation this week, but there are other decisions that will impact the teams’ path to a national championship.

And for the record, my playoff algorithm assumes SMU would likely get the nod ahead of Alabama, which is the case in about 85 percent of my simulations.

But how would the committee handle Penn State and Georgia’s losses? Will Notre Dame overtake Penn State? Would that mean Ohio State overtakes Penn State because of its head-to-head win? Maybe the Buckeyes will jump on Georgia. And would Georgia fall under Tennessee?

While I don’t necessarily agree with penalizing a team if it loses in an additional game – whether it’s a competitive game – there will be discussions about these decisions long after the decision is made.

I can look at these specific scenarios using my College Football Playoff prediction model and see how a team’s odds would impact the national championship. Could the No. 5 seed have a more favorable route than the No. 1 seed despite playing an extra game? Alabama is considered a possible No. 11 seed. So does that mean seventh is preferable to sixth?

How important will sowing be?

Let’s use Saturday night’s Big Ten title game between No. 1 Oregon and No. 3 Penn State as an example of everything that’s still at stake, depending on how the conference championships turn out and how the selection committee reacts.

Penn State is ranked No. 3 in the committee’s rankings, ahead of Notre Dame, Georgia, Ohio State and Tennessee. What happens if the Nittany Lions lose to Oregon in the Big Ten title game and fall to 11-2? I think there are two parts to this. First, would James Franklin’s squad actually To use from losing? And second, perhaps answering the first question, would Penn State fall behind Notre Dame and/or Ohio State?

I believe that if the Big Ten title game is closely contested, the committee will not penalize the Nittany Lions much – certainly not enough to fall behind Ohio State. However, if that were to happen, let’s see how drastic the change would be.

If Penn State beat Oregon, I predict it would win the national championship 13 percent of the time. If the Nittany Lions lose, I have them at 10 percent. Maybe it’s not as big of a deal as you might think — Oregon, Texas and Ohio State are the only teams with national title odds above 10 percent as of Friday — but there are certain scenarios where it actually works to Penn State’s advantage would be the No. 5 seed. Just look at the table based on Tuesday’s rankings:

Would you rather play No. 1 seed Oregon and get a bye but play the winner of Ohio State-Tennessee? Or would you rather be No. 5 Penn State and play Arizona State (at home)? And Boise State? Meanwhile, No. 6 Notre Dame faces No. 11 Alabama before its game against SMU.

If UNLV defeated Boise State and Penn State was a No. 5 seed, the Nittany Lions’ title chances in a first-round game against the Rebels would be 13 percent. But if Clemson were to beat SMU and finish as a No. 12 seed, Penn State’s chances would drop to somewhere between 10 and 11 percent. And what if Texas lost to Georgia or Penn State fell behind Notre Dame and No. 6 State College faced No. 11 Alabama? His chances would drop to 7 percent.

That’s a long-winded way of saying that while there is a possibility of an easy path to the semifinals by losing the Big Ten Championship, it is not a given because there is a possibility that a loss will result in that Penn State drops to No. 5 . My current predictions are that Penn State – and Oregon, although not as much – would benefit from winning the Big Ten Championship. But the fifth seed might not be a bad place.

Could a loser in a conference title game lose a home game?

Notre Dame will host a first-round game, and the loser of the Big Ten title game should do so as well. Ohio State also appears to be locked in for a home playoff game as it sits ahead of Tennessee. Based on selection committee chairman Warde Manuel’s comments on Tuesday, there is no reason to believe that teams that are idle this weekend will compete. As of the second-to-last ranking, Ohio State would be the No. 8 seed hosting No. 9 seed Tennessee.

But does Tennessee still have a chance at a home game? The nightmare scenario for Georgia — which sits at No. 5 in the Top 25, ahead of No. 6 Ohio State and No. 7 Tennessee — is being defeated by Texas in the SEC title game, falling two spots behind the two Buckeyes And Volunteers ranked 7th and therefore 9th on the list.

To be clear, my model does not assume this will happen, although that may be a flaw in the algorithm. But if Georgia falls so far behind that it loses a home playoff game to a team it beat convincingly in the regular season because it had to play an extra game against the No. 2 team in the country, that would mean the system is flawed is. If Georgia lost and fell behind Tennessee, its national title chances would drop by about 2 percentage points.

Maybe not likely this year, but an 8-on-9 scenario like this could easily come to fruition in the future.

Who will receive the bye in the first round?

Remember, first-round byes go to the top four ranked conference champions. The Big Ten (Oregon or Penn State) and the SEC (Texas or Georgia) are guaranteed two byes depending on the outcome of the rankings. That leaves two byes for the ACC, Big 12 and Mountain West champions. (Tulane’s loss last week to Memphis likely left the AAC out of consideration.)

Here are the odds for teams earning first-round byes, according to my model, taking into account their chances of winning their conference championship games:

First, my model doesn’t think UNLV can get a bye, meaning it will be the No. 12 seed if it upsets Boise State.

My favorite scenario is Clemson beating SMU and Boise State beating UNLV. Should that happen, my model would put Boise State as the No. 3 seed, the Big 12 champion (Arizona State or Iowa State) as the most likely No. 4 seed, and Clemson as the No. 12 seed, making perhaps a tougher draw for the No. 5 seed than expected.

(Photo: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)