College football playoffs: How many teams are still alive in the 12-team field?

College football playoffs: How many teams are still alive in the 12-team field?

The College Football Playoff selection committee released its latest rankings Tuesday night. Let’s just say there are plenty of teams still alive in the CFP hunt.

In total, we’ve compiled 22 teams from the Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big 12 and Group of Five that offer at least a somewhat viable path to the first-ever 12-team playoffs.

Let’s take a look at who they are before the final weekend of the 2024 regular season.

(Teams’ chances of reaching the CFP, per ESPN’s Football Power Indexin brackets.)

BIG TEN

No. 1 Oregon (99.9%): The Ducks are 19-point favorites against Washington in their regular season finale and are already headed to the Big Ten championship game. They’re in.

No. 2 Ohio State (99.4%): The Buckeyes, a three-touchdown favorite, must beat Michigan this weekend to punch their ticket to the Big Ten Championship. Even if they somehow lose, wins over Penn State and Indiana would put Ohio State in the field.

No. 4 Penn State (98.8%): Beat Maryland, and the Nittany Lions are not only on the field, but also likely hosting a first-round game at Beaver Stadium. If Michigan upsets Ohio State, Penn State would be in play for a first-round bye via the Big Ten Championship Game.

No. 10 Indiana (97.4%): Indiana failed in the only real test of the year at Ohio State University. But it doesn’t look like that matters. The Hoosiers probably won’t host a game. But ranking No. 7 nationally in record strength and No. 7 in game control helps their case tremendously.

SEC

No. 3 Texas (97.8%): The Longhorns must beat Texas A&M to reach the SEC title game. If they lose, they’ll probably still advance. But at 10-2 it would be a conversation.

No. 7 Georgia (90.8%): Despite losses to Ole Miss and Alabama, the Bulldogs are in the SEC Championship Game. And if they don’t explode, they’re probably in the field.

No. 8 Tennessee (75.2%): The Vols were the biggest CFP winners from last weekend’s losses at Alabama and Ole Miss. They don’t have a path to the SEC title game, but that’s okay. Given their ranking, beating Vanderbilt in the finals would be enough.

No. 13 Alabama (37.2%): As annoying as it may be for non-SEC fans, three-loss Alabama is still in the game. But the Crimson Tide, locked out of the SEC title game, have to beat Auburn and hope for chaos. A Tennessee loss to Vanderbilt, a Miami loss to Syracuse and a Clemson loss to SMU in the ACC title game would be a start.

No. 15 South Carolina (24%): I’m a bit perplexed about this. I suspect a Clemson exit this weekend would improve the three-loss Gamecocks’ standing. But they lost to both Alabama and Ole Miss. I would imagine the committee would choose one of them over South Carolina.

No. 20 Texas A&M (6.3%): The Aggies actually control their own destiny. Only two of their losses came in conference play. If they beat Texas, they will advance to the SEC Championship Game. Beat Georgia and Texas A&M is not only in the CFP, but also likely has a first-round bye. It’s just that the chances of beating Texas and Georgia are pretty slim.

No. 14 Ole Miss (6.1%): Again, it’s hard to imagine a team with three losses still alive. But if Ole Miss gets the mess we mentioned with Alabama and is compared to the Tide, the committee could consider the team that beat Georgia more fully and more recently.

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ACC

No. 6 Miami (80.4%): I don’t necessarily agree with Miami being ranked ahead of SMU. But that’s where the Hurricanes are, giving them a little more leeway if they beat Syracuse but lose to SMU in the ACC Championship game. If they win, they receive a bye into the first round.

No. 9 SMU (62.4%): The ACC has a good chance of becoming a dual-contender league, but it would need the loser of the title game to come close. The Mustangs are already in the ACC Championship game. But because of its potential high hopes, SMU can’t stumble against Cal this weekend.

No. 12 Clemson (24.2%): The Tigers have a path to the ACC title game and a first-round bye if Miami loses to Syracuse. If they beat South Carolina and get help from higher up the rankings, they could be an overall team.

BIG 12

No. 18 Iowa State (27.5%)

No. 19 BYU (25.8%)

No. 16 Arizona State (25.6%)

No. 25 Colorado (6.2%)

There are chaos scenarios in which West Virginia, Baylor and Texas Tech can advance to the Big 12 title game. But if they did it and won, would they really be one of the top five ranked conference champions? Probably not. So let’s focus on the teams with realistic CFP odds.

I won’t break down the Big 12’s head-to-head, three-way, and four-way tiebreakers between Iowa State, BYU, Colorado, and Arizona State. Just know that all four teams are fighting for a spot in the conference championship and therefore the CFP. Also note that the Big 12 will be a one-bid league, with all four teams suffering two or three losses.

GROUP OF FIVE

No. 11 Boise State (67.8%): The Broncos are the top contenders in the Mountain West and among all G5 teams for a CFP berth. If we win, we’ll see Ashton Jeanty.

No. 17 Tulane (25%): Tulane is far from dead. The Green Wave have an impressive 9-2 record and have secured a spot in the AAC Championship. If Tulane wins and beats Army in the title game — and Boise State loses — the Green Wave would have a good chance of getting in.

No. 22 UNLV (16.5%): UNLV is still alive at 9-2. The Rebels would have to beat Boise in the MWC championship game. And with their explosive offense, they can do it.

Army (12.4%): The Army’s only defeat was at Notre Dame. Sure, the Black Knights rolled the dice. But if they go 12-1 with an AAC title, they would be an attractive option outside of the MWC.

Also consider: There is a world in which the Big 12 is excluded from the CFP. There are 256 different scenarios in play to determine who plays for the Big 12 title. So there is certainly a chance that a team with three or even four losses will win. That could mean the winner of the Big 12 isn’t among the five top-seeded conference champions – opening the door for another G5 team.

After last week’s games, here are my predictions for the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff.

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