Colorado and BYU will face off in the 2024 Alamo Bowl in a battle of Big 12 rivals. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects results and picks winners.

Colorado may have the most powerful rushing offense in college football, but its vertical game, led by quarterback Shedeur Sanders, is one of the strongest in the country and has led this team to win nine games and nearly win this season entered the Big 12 title game.

This will be the last time we see Sanders and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter on the field in Colorado uniforms as both look to enter the NFL Draft this spring.

BYU was perfect in nine games, but two narrow losses by a total of nine points derailed its ambitions in the Big 12 and the College Football Playoff.

Colorado and BYU have played each other just twice since the 1947 season and 12 times total, with the Buffaloes holding an 8-3-1 all-time lead over the Cougars.

What do you think will happen when the Buffs and Cougars meet in the postseason?

To do this, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Colorado and BYU will fare in college football’s Alamo Bowl game.

What’s notable is that the Models are not siding with the Buffaloes in this game, instead giving the Cougars the slight advantage in a planned surprise special.

SP+ predicts BYU will defeat Colorado by a projected score of 29-25 and win the game by an expected margin of 3.2 points.

The model gives the Cougars a slim 58 percent chance of an outright win over the Buffaloes.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a win ratio of 52.1.

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According to the updated lines posted for the matchup on FanDuel Sportsbook, Colorado is the 2.5-point favorite against BYU.

FanDuel lists the overall score for the game at 54.5 points (over -110, under -110).

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -152 for Colorado and +126 for BYU.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

Most bettors take the opposite view and expect the Buffaloes to defeat the Cougars when looking at the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Colorado gets 60 percent of the bets on coming through as the favorite, winning the game by at least a field goal and covering that narrow point margin.

The other 40 percent of bets assume BYU will either beat the Buffs in an upset or keep the final lead under three points in a loss.

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The college football rankings Football Power Index (FPI) and computer prediction model is a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games and use a combination of key analytics including recent results, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and a team’s schedule.

The teams are not ranked by talent as in other rankings, but by a expected points lead per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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When: Sat, December 28th
Where: San Antonio, Texas.

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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