It only took about 20 games into the 2024-2025 NBA season to completely reshape what we thought we knew at the start of the year. The Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder were expected to emerge as championship favorites in each conference, but there are plenty of surprises after that.

The Cleveland Cavaliers look like a juggernaut, the Orlando Magic are still beating teams without the injured Paolo Banchero, and the Houston Rockets are evolving from a fun, young team into a real contender. The top of the league needs more time to become clear, but the bottom is already emerging.

The 2025 NBA Draft has a big prize at the top with Duke rookie Cooper Flagg. Given the strong prospects for the No. 1 pick in this class, teams at the bottom of the rankings will begin to prioritize their draft position over maximizing their wins if they haven’t already. Here’s an updated look at which teams could land the first pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, broken down by tier.

Read our full 2025 NBA Mock Draft here. Read our article on how Flagg became a future No. 1 overall pick here.

Parts will have to be sold soon

Brooklyn Nets: I rated the Nets as the second-worst team in the league at the start of the season. If the season ended on Monday morning, Brooklyn’s draft pick wouldn’t even be in the top 10. The Nets looked extremely competent under new head coach Jordi Fernandez in a 9:12 start, with Cam Thomas thanks to above-expected efficiency collected points and Dennis Schröder had one of the better years of his career. It feels like the Nets leadership is still on the same page about pursuing Flagg this season, but they will be making trades well before the February trade deadline to actually have a chance on him. Dorian Finney-Smith and Cameron Johnson are the most likely candidates for a swap here, but don’t be surprised if Thomas and Schröder move too – especially if the wins keep piling up.

Chicago Bulls: The Bulls play at the fastest pace in the NBA and have gone from being the league’s most hesitant three-point shooting team to one of its most willing. Chicago can spring some surprises if the three-point number goes down, but there still isn’t much hope for the future here. The Bulls can point to Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic both playing at near All-Star levels, which is why they have remained competitive. Both players have been on the market since at least last summer, and now there may finally be a market for their services after this season’s hot starts. LaVine’s contract is still huge and teams will have to decide whether his high-volume three-point shooting (43 percent from distance this year) is worth the financial outlay. Vucevic figures to be easier to move because his three-point shooting is automatic (nearly 47 percent from three!) and he only has one season left under contract at $20 million. If the Bulls can oust LaVine, Vucevic and Lonzo Ball soon, they will get right back into the flag game. If not, Chicago will consider losing its top-10 protected draft pick to the San Antonio Spurs because of the experienced trio. The Bulls wouldn’t mind if the younger teams in the East (including the Hornets, Pistons and Hawks) started playing with more consistency.

Portland Trail Blazers: The Blazers picked up some surprising wins in November, including two against the Timberwolves, a win against the Rockets and a win against the Sacramento Kings. It feels like this roster is split into two timelines: There are the veterans who are productive enough to push for the play-in tournament (Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, Deni Avdija), then there are the younger core that shows signs of life but probably still needs at least another year of development (Shaedon Sharpe, Donovan Clingan). Scoot Henderson seems to be a huge disappointment so far, but at least Toumani Camara looks good? The Blazers have struggled hard after the All-Star break in the past, and I expect the same thing to happen again despite an 8-13 start. There just isn’t much room to maneuver up out West, and that will make the pivot an easy choice for Portland once again.

One injury away from tanking

Philadelphia 76ers: I rated the 76ers as championship contenders at the start of the season. Oops. Philly was a train wreck from the start: Joel Embiid looked like a shell of his former self, Paul George was unable to return to top form after a preseason knee injury, and the depth around them looked worse than expected. The Sixers are 4-14 despite Jared McCain playing like easy rookie of the year early in the season. Philly’s goal all along has been to get to the playoffs healthy, and that’s still theoretically on the table. It really all comes down to Embiid: Does the player who broke per minute records last year still exist, or has he disappeared for good due to injuries? The Sixers’ draft pick is protected in the top six, meaning they are eyeing the disaster of losing their pick if they don’t move it. Right now, the Sixers are perfectly capable of keeping their pick and selecting a top prospect… but this team has to turn things around at some point, right? The Sixers may not be on this list in a month, but if Embiid doesn’t return to full strength soon, the idea of ​​tanking for Flagg won’t seem so crazy.

Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball is having a fantastic year, but it hasn’t translated into many wins for the Hornets, even before his recent calf injury that will keep him out for a few weeks. Ball is used so frequently that it’s hard to imagine what Charlotte’s offense will look like without him. Brandon Miller or Tre Mann are capable of taking over a larger portion of the offense, but this team still lacks the necessary physicality. Charlotte’s 6-14 start came despite new head coach Charles Lee moving the defense from 29th to 15th earlier this year. Charlotte has had so many high draft picks over the years that it would probably like to try to make the playoffs in the East, but the losses are already piling up with Ball now out of the lineup. Once Ball returns, the Hornets still have plenty of running time, but his ongoing durability issues could push this team back into the tank race.

New Orleans Pelicans: The Pelicans are plagued by the injury episode every year, and it has happened again to an almost comical degree. Zion Williamson is out indefinitely with a hamstring injury, and at this point it seems foolish to expect him to be a productive player again any time soon. The Pelicans are finally getting some other guys healthy: Dejounte Murray and Trey Murphy III each return to the lineup after long injuries earlier in the year, and Brandon Ingram is coming back soon. The Pelicans felt like they could have been a protected playoff team this year if everything had gone well, but that never seems to happen. After a 4-17 start and the league’s third-toughest remaining schedule in the brutal Western Conference, New Orleans may be too far behind for Williamson to possibly play a role again. This team can absolutely compete and be No. 1 overall.

Toronto Raptors: The Raptors are actually happy with a six win. Gradey Dick is making a big jump in his second season, RJ Barrett is having a career year, and even Jakob Poeltl is hitting his stride. With Scottie Barnes returning from injury and the East looking as miserable as ever, you can convince yourself that the Raptors are headed to the play-in tournament. However, Poeltl’s comment on media day that he wasn’t really trying to win this year still sticks with me. Toronto really needs a future star to build around, and that makes tanking its best move. Trading Poeltl would immediately make this team soft on the inside, and unless Immanuel Quickley turns his season around in dramatic fashion, this Raptors offense won’t consistently outscore teams. The Raps appear to be a team committed to tanking, and another move or an extended injury layoff will bring them into the Flagg mix.

The favorites

Utah Jazz: The Jazz are proving they can still hold out significantly despite signing Lauri Markkanen to a nearly $240 million contract extension before the season. Markkanen has had a bad year by his standards, but the team around him is too young and too raw to be competitive every night in the West. Keyonte George is putting up numbers but his efficiency is terrible, rookie Cody Williams has been pretty much the worst player in the league so far and the defense is pathetic even though Walker Kessler is having a bounce-back year. Head coach Will Hardy made this team look competitive in the first half of the season the last two years, but Danny Ainge traded away too many pieces. This team is downright bad and should be in the lottery with the best odds at Flagg.

Washington Wizards: The Wizards have won their last two games in October, both against the Atlanta Hawks. They haven’t won a game since. Washington went 0-0 for November as its young draft picks played big minutes and the veterans (Kyle Kuzma, Malcolm Brogdon, Jonas Valanciunas) all moved in and out of the lineup. Bilal Coulibaly has been a revelation in his sophomore year, No. 2 overall pick Alex Sarr is blocking plenty of shots, and fellow freshman Bub Carrington has had moments of encouraging flashes of creation. Still, this team is as far from competitive as any other team in the NBA. Washington will be in that position again next season before the 2026 lottery is at capacity, but having Cooper Flagg on the roster would certainly make another year of rebuilding more bearable.