Corbin Burnes is heading to the Arizona Diamondbacks, and it didn’t come cheap.

The 2021 Cy Young Award winner agreed to a six-year, $210 million contract with the Diamondbacks early Saturday morning. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the agreement, which includes an opt-out for Burnes after two seasons.

Since Burnes, Yahoo Sports’ third-ranked free agent, turned down a qualifying offer from Baltimore, the Orioles will receive draft pick compensation from his new team.

The contract is the largest in Diamondbacks history. Burnes, who lives in Scottsdale, Arizona, will now pitch for the local team after reportedly turning down offers from the San Francisco Giants and Toronto Blue Jays.

The D-Backs are making their big move with Corbin Burnes

While the move makes sense from a commuting perspective, it comes as a surprise from Arizona.

A year after reaching their first World Series since 2001, the 89-win D-Backs narrowly missed the playoffs in 2024 and remain stuck in the NL West, arguably the most competitive division in baseball. However, the team is still prepared to win and that’s why it spent big on a new weapon after the Los Angeles Dodgers (re-signing Blake Snell, re-signing Teoscar Hernández) and Giants (re-signing Willy Adames) with the San Diego Padres lurks.

However, the rotation was already emerging as a strength for the D-backs, or at least it was given their high number of position player free agents and a bullpen that finished 25th in ERA last season. They still decided to spend big to add another headliner alongside Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt. Jordan Montgomery is also still under contract after a disastrous 2024 — poor D-Backs owner Ken Kendrick called his contract a “terrible decision” — but he’s now a clear trade candidate if a team wants to try and bargain to shop.

It’s also encouraging that the D-Backs are spending money despite being one of the teams whose RSN is imploding due to the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group. Local cable revenue is a fundamental part of the finances for teams like Arizona, but they still strive for it.

The Giants’ offer for Burnes was outstanding considering how competitive some teams in the NL West were in free agency. However, Arizona benefited from a more favorable income tax situation compared to Burnes’ more significant candidates.

Meanwhile, the deal ends Burnes’ tenure with the Orioles after one season. The AL East contender made a promising deal last winter by acquiring the right-hander from the Milwaukee Brewers, but he ended up getting a one-year rental.

It’s not that Burnes didn’t deliver for Baltimore. From his Opening Day start (6 innings, 1 hit, 1 run, 11 strikeouts) to his only postseason start (8 innings, 5 hits, 1 run, 3 strikeouts), Burnes was the real ace the Orioles were looking for, when they traded him, but his free agent market was probably out of Baltimore’s price range.

Corbin Burnes has been one of MLB’s best pitchers for five years, but could he be on the decline?

Looking at the last half decade, there is no doubt that Burnes was one of the top aces in the MLB.

As of the 2020 season, Burnes ranks third in the MLB in innings pitched with 816 2/3, fourth in ERA with 2.88, sixth in FIP with 3.01, second in strikeouts with 946 and fourth Ranked in bWAR with 18.6. In a pitcher, there’s nothing Burnes can’t do well.

It remains an impressive success story for a player who was legitimately one of the worst pitchers in the MLB in 2019. In 49 innings pitched, Burnes posted an annoying ERA of 8.82. That remains the worst ERA of any pitcher in Brewers history with at least 40 innings pitched. Only 23 pitchers in MLB history have scored worse in so many innings.

Then Burnes turned his career around by introducing an editor that is now his trademark. However, he actually reduced his cutter usage from 55.4% to 45% last season, although he still had a great season.

However, there are some reasons to worry that Burnes could be on the decline, starting with the fact that he is already over 30 years old. After recording whiff rates above 35% from 2019 to 2022, it fell below 29% in 2023 and 2024. Last season, batters also swung and came into contact with pitches in Burnes’ zone at the highest rate since his abysmal 2019 season.

Burnes’ velocity has remained consistent throughout his career, but in 2024 he struck out batters at a rate that was mediocre by MLB standards and abysmal by his own standards. Quite a few ERA forecasters have also not been fans of his peripherals over the last two seasons.

What matters, however, are the results, and Burnes delivered. Even a pitcher who performs 90% of Burnes’ best is one of the most valuable pitchers in the game, and there are pitchers older than Burnes who still make tens of millions per year.

It’s okay to give Burnes that much money and he would be a great addition to any team. It’s just important to be aware of what trends he’ll have to buck to stay among the MLB elite.