Could Joe Burrow really be NFL MVP? His stats say yes. No precedent.

Could Joe Burrow really be NFL MVP? His stats say yes. No precedent.

To win the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award, it’s not enough for Joe Burrow to post league-leading stats. Cincinnati’s quarterback would also have to do something Harder: Upset decades of historical precedent.

Like Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, a two-time award winner, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley, Burrow has put up the kind of gaudy numbers needed to to enter the MVP conversation. Burrow has thrown at least three touchdowns in each of his last eight games, for a total of 27 touchdowns with just five interceptions over that two-month span.

However, what is unusual and sets Burrow apart from his Pro Bowl peers is that he has a league-leading 4,641 yards and 42 touchdowns, along with the fifth-lowest interception rate and fifth-highest completion rate, despite remaining a fringe playoff contender .

The Bengals started 1-4 and were only 4-8 on December 1st. But after four wins in a row, they go into the regular season finale in Pittsburgh on Saturday at 8-8 and fighting against Denver (9-7) and Miami (8-8) for the last, unclaimed playoff spot AFC. Denver can secure last place with a win.

According to NBC Sports Research, OJ Simpson was the last player to win the MVP award in 1973 but missed the playoffs. Additionally, the worst record by a team with an MVP came in 1997, when Detroit went 9-7 despite the brilliance of Barry Sanders, who shared the award with Green Bay quarterback Brett Favre.

It’s not the only prestigious NFL award where voters are drawn to the winners. Running back Chris Johnson was the last offensive player of the year to miss the playoffs in 2009, when Tennessee finished 8-8. It’s also the worst record for a team to produce an Offensive Player of the Year, according to NBC Sports Research.

For both MVP and Offensive Player of the Year, a record of .500 or better was the basic requirement. That hasn’t stopped the momentum behind Burrow’s candidacy.

“He should be MVP, without a doubt,” Cowboys star linebacker Micah Parsons said this week on his podcast “The Edge with Micah Parsons.” For Parsons, the key was that Burrow did all of this despite injuries to the team’s defense and to both starting offensive tackles, whose job is to protect quarterbacks from defenders rushing past the edge of the offensive line .

“He looks unstoppable right now,” Parsons said. “His timing, his precision. Everything. Now if you ask anyone in the league, it’s not just me. We talked about it in the locker room. We said Joe Burrow was the best quarterback we faced. And we played Lamar this year.”

During this week’s “Monday Night Football” broadcast, former Cowboys quarterback Troy Aikman also said he would vote for Burrow if he had an MVP vote. (Aikman’s appreciation for Burrow is well documented: In early December, he also called Burrow “perhaps my favorite player of all time.”)

At a time when excitement is in short supply in the NFL, with only two of the league’s 14 playoff spots still up for grabs, the MVP race is one of the few remaining areas of excitement. Bettors still have Allen the favorite to win his first MVP after throwing a career-low 41 touchdowns and six interceptions to lead the Bills to a 13-3 record and the No. 2 seed in the AFC Although many analysts had a receiving corps in the preseason, it was believed that there were no playmakers left in the preseason. By handing top-seeded Kansas City its only loss and scoring both historic and game-high touchdowns late in the season, Allen produced moments that are hard for voters to ignore.

In Baltimore, Jackson totaled 43 touchdowns, led the league with 14 passes of 40 yards or longer and had his most accurate season as a passer while helping the 11-5 Ravens capture a division title. And Barkley last week became just the ninth player in NFL history to record more than 2,000 rushing yards in a season and is just 101 yards away from tying the all-time rushing yardage record in a season.

According to odds analyzed by Covers, Burrow has the fourth-best odds on most sportsbooks. Burrow’s stats speak for themselves. However, this also applies to his team’s third place in their own league. Burrow is trying to avoid the distinction of becoming the first quarterback since Russell Wilson in 2017 to lead the NFL in pass yards and touchdowns but miss the playoffs.

When asked about the MVP race this week, Burrow told reporters, “One day I’ll win one.” But he said he doubted it would be this season.

“Usually you have to win your division,” he said. “That’s how we vote. I would say I don’t necessarily agree with that.”

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