For NFL teams, quarterback succession plans can be one of the most difficult procedures to implement smoothly. Just ask the Atlanta Falcons.

Atlanta surprised people across the league at the 2024 NFL Draft when it selected former Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 pick a month after signing veteran QB Kirk Cousins ​​to a four-year, $180 million contract. The decision under consideration was later defended by team management as a protective measure to avoid quarterback purgatory.

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The plan seemed to be for the 24-year-old Penix to study under Cousins ​​before eventually taking over the QB1 position later on. But eight months later, with Cousins ​​in the first year of his contract and the team’s first playoff appearance in seven years still within reach, the Falcons already appear ready to move on. After Cousins ​​failed to impress on Monday night, the latest in a string of subpar performances, Atlanta announced it would trade the veteran in favor of Penix, who will make his first career start this Sunday against the New York Giants.

“You see the consequences when carefully thought-out plans go awry,” former NFL super agent Leigh Steinberg said in a telephone interview. “This must have been a shocking decision for the coach and the front office.”

The Yank has suddenly destabilized the team’s quarterback situation while creating a potentially costly transition for the Falcons, who will have to pay Cousins ​​a guaranteed $27.5 million next season regardless of the 14 starts he made in has done this season to benefit him with the franchise. Should the Falcons cut or trade him, his dead cap hit would likely still impact their roster-building flexibility through 2026.

“If you don’t play your franchise quarterback with heavily guaranteed money in a critical situation because you think you have a better chance of winning with (Penix), that’s like a hand grenade being thrown into the middle of this well-thought-out plan. said Steinberg, who has represented a record eight No. 1 draft picks, including former Falcons star quarterback Steve Bartkowski.

The Green Bay Packers are arguably the best in the league at quarterback succession planning. For over 20 years, they were led in this position by current and future Pro Football Hall of Famers in Brett Favre (now retired) and Aaron Rodgers (now with the New York Jets). Packers starter Jordan Love, who replaced Rodgers last year after serving as a backup for three seasons, was considered for Pro Bowl honors and continues to show promise. At least enough for the franchise to sign him to a four-year, $220 million contract (including a record $75 million bonus), making him one of the highest-paid players in the league.

Every NFL team strives for this level of continuity and stability. It is difficult to execute. Cases like the Kansas City Chiefs selecting reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes in the first round in 2017 while still using then-experienced starter Alex Smith are rarer than gold. It’s more common for general managers to take a potential long-term starter in the draft and pray that he’ll be ready when his number is called. Daniel Jones, Trey Lance, Zach Wilson, Kenny Pickett, Mac Jones and Mitchell Trubisky have all failed to adequately replace their teams’ incumbents.

The Falcons’ opponent had their own quarterback drama this week as they are still trying to follow in the footsteps of Eli Manning five years ago. The Jets, Las Vegas Raiders, Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts are other teams that could be eyeing a new franchise quarterback in the upcoming draft in April.

So the Falcons are just the latest team to illustrate why seamless quarterback succession plans are difficult to successfully complete. Atlanta has had a void since trading away its all-time passing leader, Matt Ryan, in 2022. The offseason moves of paying Cousins ​​more than anyone else in this year’s free agent class and selecting Penix despite other positional needs may have been an overcorrection. Now the team is projecting a potential dead cap value of $65 million, which would be the second-best value ever behind Russell Wilson, who left Denver earlier this year with a total dead cap value of $85 million. the highest in NFL history. However, if the Falcons release Cousins ​​after June 1, they can spread the hit over two years and instead pay a $40 million cap hit next season.

While the Falcons have pushed the button on their succession plan sooner than expected, left-back Penix could prove up to the challenge despite the limited number of players in the preseason. The decision to give guaranteed money to a then-35-year-old Cousins ​​who suffered an Achilles tendon injury can be forgiven if Penix can remind people why he was one of the most electrifying players in college football last year. He finished second in Heisman Trophy voting, threw for nearly 5,000 yards and led the Huskies to the national championship game.

Cousins, who has earned more than $294 million in his career, has passed the torch with class, but it remains to be seen whether his understudy is up for the lead role. It’s uncertain what the team’s expectations are now for Penix this season, but it’s clear that the Falcons’ QB strategy is in full swing, reflecting the league-wide dilemma facing teams that have spent guaranteed money and later have the desire to remove this player.

“This is a very dramatic move to make this late in the season while trying to be a wild card team,” Steinberg added. “It’s a clear signal that they turn to a young quarterback in times of crisis.”

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