Thursday’s weather will bring an arctic blast for the Midwest and Northeast and more lake-effect snow for the Great Lakes.

Cold air associated with an area of ​​high pressure will move across the Upper Midwest on Thursday, bringing temperatures 15 to 25 degrees below average and brutally cold winds over parts of the northern Plains and the upper Mississippi Valley. The cold weather has led to cold warnings for parts of North Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin, the National Weather Service said.

“The dangerously cold wind, with temperatures reaching 35 degrees below zero, could cause frostbite on exposed skin in just 10 minutes,” warned the weather service in Duluth, Minnesota.

AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said, “The extent of the cold air will lose some of its force as it moves over the bare ground in the Midwest and over the open and relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes, but the cold will still sting.” “ far south to the Ohio and Tennessee valleys and to the Appalachian Mountains and Atlantic Coast to the east Thursday through Friday.

Meanwhile, to the west, strong Santa Ana winds will ease across Southern California, aiding the fight against the Franklin Fire in Malibu.

Lake effect snow for the Great Lakes

The weather service said heavy lake snow will fall downwind from the Great Lakes on Thursday.

Places that will see 12 to 24 inches of snow accumulation include parts of northern Michigan, southwestern Ontario, northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania, according to AccuWeather. However, there will be locations in western and northern New York where 24 to 36 inches of snow accumulates.

A state of emergency is in effect for at least a dozen counties in Western New York, which will see up to three feet of snow covered by Friday. State officials also issued several road restrictions due to the snowfall.

Snow should be lighter in most areas overnight Thursday into Friday. However, the weather service said moderate to heavy lake snow will form from Lake Ontario on Friday.

The wind in Santa Ana dies down

The fierce Santa Ana winds that hit Southern California this week and fueled the Franklin Fire in Malibu are expected to ease Thursday. Humidity will also increase in Southern California on Thursday, which will help with fire suppression.

Rain and snow will move into central California at higher elevations on Thursday, leading to light snowfall over the Sierra Nevada over the next few days, the weather service said.

La Niña still in the bullpen; What does this mean for our winter weather?

Federal meteorologists announced Thursday morning that the long-promised La Niña climate pattern has not yet officially been achieved. And they’re not sure why.

“It’s clear that model predictions have been too cold recently,” Michelle L’Heureux of the Climate Prediction Center told USA TODAY. “The observed sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific are on the cooler side of normal, but we are still falling short of our La Niña limits.”

She admitted that “the path for La Niña to develop this winter is getting shorter and shorter.”

However, forecasters said La Niña conditions are still most likely to occur by January 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO neutral most likely in March-May 2025 (61% chance).

La Niña is a phenomenon characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific region and is associated with floods and droughts worldwide.

If it forms, “this event is expected to be weak,” said Johnna Infanti, forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “Weak events still tend to have typical La Niña impacts, but the impacts are less certain,” she said.

Typical winter La Niña impacts in the U.S. include wetter than average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio Valley, while the south of the country tends to be drier, Weather.com said. As for temperatures, “La Niña winters tend to be colder than average in the mid-northern United States. The South often experiences above-average temperatures, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be periods of colder weather,” Weather.com said in an online report.

Contributor: Victoria E. Freile, New York Connect Team; Reuters

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Winter weather forecast: Arctic blast and snow for the Great Lakes