We are tracking another significant winter storm, Cora, which will cover parts of Texas on Friday and then move east across the southern states to the East Coast by Saturday. Some icy conditions are also expected from Texas to Virginia. The storm will hit the major cities of Dallas-Ft. Worth, Little Rock, Memphis and Atlanta.

Behind the recent winter storm Blair, an Arctic air mass has engulfed much of the contiguous United States and spread into the Deep South, reaching the southwestern United States, Texas and Mexico. This created a solid cold pool across the entire region.

At the same time, a large upper wave is moving through the desert southwest and is expected to move east across the southern United States in the coming days. By early Friday, the wave will develop and become a surface low over Texas Winter Storm Cora. It will be the primary focus for significant winter weather through Friday and Saturday.

A deep layer of snow is expected to blanket millions of people from Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley to the Appalachian Mountains Friday through Saturday. Icy road conditions could also be possible.

Below, Tuesday’s satellite analysis shows a sizable upper wave parked over the southwestern United States, with a broad arctic air mass cold pool dominating much of the United States and Canada at the surface.

The Arctic air mass is forecast to maintain these cold temperatures throughout the week as the westerly wave gradually moves into the southern United States through Friday. And the winter storm develops.

The following animation provides a quick overview of the upcoming winter weather across the southern United States late Thursday through Sunday. A snowstorm will move from Texas to Virginia.

The cold air mass is spreading behind the frontal system and engulfing deep South Texas, including the western Gulf Coast and Mexico.

Parts of North Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and northern Louisiana are already under a winter storm warning for the threat of snow, sleet and freezing rain associated with Storm Cora. These include Dallas-Ft. Worth, Little Rock, Shreveport and Memphis.

Let’s discuss the current weather pattern and the development of the potentially significant winter storm for the coming weekend.

An upper wave moves into the Southern Plains and develops Winter Storm Cora

The upper wave currently over the West Coast and desert southwestern United States will gradually move eastward across Arizona and New Mexico into Texas and deepen by Friday morning.

Below the wave, the surface low will strengthen into a frontal system, resulting in a winter storm (it has been named Cora by the Weather Channel).

The upper wave will initially be almost a closed low over northern Mexico and West Texas and will become an elongated low on Friday. This will accelerate the storm’s spread northeast of Texas into the Mississippi Valley and southeastern states.

The deep wave and surface low will push the Arctic cold air mass further south across the southwestern United States, reaching central Mexico and western and north-central Texas. This will bring cool temperatures, allowing rain to turn to snow as Cora moves through Texas on Friday.

Strong temperature anomalies will favor heavy winter rainfall in the areas below.

Deep snow cover is forecast from North Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley

Friday morning will see wintry weather across West and North Texas, southern Oklahoma and Arkansas. There will be heavy snowfall. This includes Dallas-Ft. Worth, Little Rock and Shreveport.

Heavy rain will continue south of the freezing line, heaviest in the morning in East Texas and Louisiana and later further east in Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. Heavy rain, including some severe storms, will spread along the Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle.

According to the general consensus on high-resolution weather models, there is a good chance of snow across northern Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia, including Atlanta.

A narrow corridor between heavy rain and snow also favors sleet, freezing rain and icy roads due to strong advection of warm air masses aloft while temperatures at lower levels are below freezing.

This will most likely form from central Texas through southern Arkansas to northern Mississippi. Up to 0.5 inches of black ice could accumulate in parts of Texas early Friday.

The latest weather model forecasts indicate a swath of deep snow is expected from central Texas through central Arkansas to Tennessee. 8-14″ will likely accumulate in less than 24 hours as the storm moves across the southern states. About Dallas-Ft. Up to 10″ of snow is possible. The Worth, TX area has similar amounts of snow to Little Rock, AR.

A few inches of snow is forecast across Oklahoma, with up to 10 inches in the far southeastern part of the state. 3 to 8 inches are expected around the narrow, deep strip of snow in Missouri, southern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky.

North Mississippi and Alabama could also see between 4 and 10 inches of snow Friday. Snow amounts will decrease toward the East Coast as winter storms dissipate over time toward Saturday morning.

Heavy rain will spread further south along the Gulf Coast, with 2 to 4 inches expected from the Texas coast to southern Alabama. The highest rainfall amounts are forecast from Houston, TX to Lake Charles, LA and Jackson, MS.

Conditions will gradually improve heading into the weekend as the winter storm disappears on Friday evening and Saturday morning as it heads toward the East Coast. Cool days are forecast for the weekend as the cold pool persists over the Plains and eastern United States.

Stay alert as driving conditions deteriorate rapidly in Texas and Arkansas on Friday. Some roads may become impassable due to deep snow and freezing rain.

Wxcharts, Windy and Pivotalweather provided the images used in this article.

See also:

Details about Storm Blair, which brought chaos from Kansas to Washington DC on Friday, January 3rd