The Diamondbacks have reached an agreement with the free agent right-hander Corbin Burnes According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, he signed a six-year deal worth $210 million. The Boras Corporation customer will have the opportunity to unsubscribe after the 2026 campaign.

The news is a shocking turn of events as Burnes had drawn significant interest in free agency but was not linked to Arizona at any point during the offseason. While some rumored suitors for the right-hander’s services, such as the Yankees and Red Sox, turned to signing alternative options for the top of their rotations Max Fried and act for Garrett Crochet or a number of well-known interested parties remained in the mix. That included not only the reigning Orioles, but also the big-time Giants and Blue Jays, both of which, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports, offered Burnes a higher guarantee. Nightengale points out that the state of Arizona has a much lower income tax rate than California or Ontario, Canada. In addition to this financial incentive, Burnes is a Scottsdale, AZ resident who will certainly enjoy the opportunity to pitch close to home.

The opt-out option cannot be ignored as a potential factor in Burnes’ decision. It’s not clear at this time whether the right-hander’s other offers gave him the same flexibility, and until the full financial breakdown of the deal is available, it won’t be entirely clear how much money Burnes would be leaving on the table by opting out. However, should the $210 million guarantee be spread evenly over the six seasons of the contract, it’s not at all hard to imagine Burnes surpassing the $140 million guarantee after his 32-year-old season, as long as he continues to throw at his current top caliber level. At the start of this offseason Blake Snell received a $182 million guarantee from the Dodgers ahead of his 32-year-old season, and a look at MLBTR’s contract tracker reveals it Zack Greinke, Max ScherzerAnd Jacob deGrom All signed free-agent contracts that included a guaranteed nine-figure salary for their players aged 32 or older.

Back to the contract Burnes just signed, however, the deal falls short of Burnes’ previous goal of meeting the $245 million guarantee the Nationals offered the right-hander Stephan Strasburg during the 2019-20 offseason. Fully guaranteed, the contract is actually about the same level as MLBTR’s seven-year, $200 million prediction we made at the start of the offseason as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, with Burnes ranked behind it Class only took second place Juan Soto. A closer look at the deal shows that Burnes followed in the footsteps of virtually every other pitcher this winter and landed a deal that exceeded expectations. The deal’s $35 million average annual value dwarfs MLBTR’s projected AAV of $28.57 million and even matches Strasburg, while the opt-out option, as noted, offers its own value in the form of flexibility.

More to come…